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    Australian Auto Residual Forecasts - AutoCycle™

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    To manage and forecast the residual value of their auto portfolios effectively, banks, captive finance, insurers, and other firms need to assess future economic conditions. The Moody's Analytics AutoCycle solution provides quantitative forecasts of Australian used car prices under normal and stressed scenarios.

    Leverage transparent, timely, and comprehensive economic forecasts with scenarios

    • Quantitative econometric forecast model that incorporates and captures supply and demand drivers and seasonal effects.
    • Extensive coverage of more 2 million transactions and nearly 18,000 vehicles by make, model and model year.
    • Monthly updates to both economic and transaction data allows for model to learn using most recent information.
    • Baseline and seven stressed scenario vehicle valuations driven by industry leader Moody’s Analytics economic forecasts.
    • Flexible delivery options, including API and Microsoft Office Add-In available.
    • Transparent methodology allows for simple internal validation.

    Benefit from forecasts that account for cyclical economic dynamics affecting the auto industry

    • Account for macroeconomic conditions such as changing fuel prices, market supply and demand conditions, and seasonal effects.
    • Evaluate plausible outcomes and mitigate risk by generating forecasts under normal and seven validated stress scenarios.
    • Evaluate sensitivity of individual vehicles in differing economic environments. For example: Portfolios with high concentrations of trucks do not retain value well in periods of high fuel prices.
    • Run forecasts for large car portfolios of varying makes, models, model years, sale location, sale type, colors, fuel type, etc.

    Utilize credible residual vehicle forecasts from a trusted, experienced source

      Moody's Analytics AutoCycle solution for the Australian vehicle market is backed by economists with extensive experience in forecasting business cycles and formulating credible stress scenarios. We offer a non-editorialized, quantitative, and transparent methodology for incorporating economic factors into vehicle price forecasts.

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