AutoCycle - Auto Residual Forecasts

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To manage and forecast the residual value of their auto portfolios effectively, banks, captive finance, insurers, and other firms need to assess future economic conditions. The Moody's Analytics AutoCycle solution provides quantitative forecasts of car prices by make, model, mileage, and year, under both normal and stressed scenarios.

Leverage transparent, timely, and comprehensive economic forecasts with scenarios

Quantitative econometric forecast model that incorporates and captures supply and demand drivers and seasonal effects.
Extensive coverage of more than 31 million transactions and nearly 1,000 vehicles by make, model, mileage and year.
Detailed coverage of more than 1,800 economic variables at the macro and regional levels.
Monthly updated forecasts and stressed scenarios, driven by macro factors and accounting for mileage and age.
Flexible delivery options, including API, Microsoft Office Add-In and web-based platform to download data in various formats.
Transparent methodology and full documentation.

Benefit from forecasts that account for cyclical economic dynamics affecting the auto industry

Account for macroeconomic variables such as gasoline prices, supply and demand drivers, and seasonal effects.
Evaluate plausible outcomes and mitigate risk by generating forecasts under normal and stressed scenarios.
Evaluate sensitivity to differing economic environments by vehicle segmentation, such as body and fuel type.
Run forecasts for large car portfolios of varying makes, models, mileage, years and features at an 11-digit VIN level.

Utilize credible residual vehicle forecasts from a trusted, experienced source

Moody's Analytics AutoCycle solution is backed by economists with extensive experience in forecasting business cycles and formulating credible stress scenarios. We offer a quantitative, transparent and documented methodology for incorporating economic factors into car price forecasts.