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    Article

    CECL Benchmark Q4 2021

    A framework to understand the extent of your allowance (updated for Q4 2021)

    March 2022 WebPage Laurent Birade, Scott Dietz, Phillip Lai
    Article

    Selecting the Right Credit Model for CECL

    In this article, we offer some criteria to consider when evaluating a CECL solution provider, along with some of the less obvious, “hidden costs” of CECL that institutions should examine before selecting the best partner to fit their needs.

    February 2022 WebPage Alex Cannon
    Article

    CECL Benchmark Q2 2021

    In this paper, we continue the research analysis that has been performed for more than a year, which lets us establish a point of view on whether banks will keep building, maintain, or start releasing allowances into the next quarter.

    August 2021 WebPage Laurent Birade, Scott Dietz, Phillip Lai
    Article

    CECL Benchmark Q1 2021

    In this paper, we continue the research analysis that has been performed for more than a year, which lets us establish a point of view on whether banks will keep building, maintain, or start releasing allowances into the next quarter.

    May 2021 WebPage Laurent Birade, Scott Dietz, Phillip Lai
    Article

    CECL Benchmark Q4 2020

    In this paper, we provide an update, based on 14 top financial institutions, of our triangulation benchmark as of December 31, 2020 to understand the range of reserve action to be expected for Q4 2020 as well as benchmarking for Q1 2021 reserve levels.

    February 2021 WebPage Laurent Birade, Scott Dietz, Phillip Lai
    Article

    ILM vs. CECL: What's the Difference? (December 2020 Update)

    As US financial institutions have filed allowance estimates for Q3 2020, Moody's Analytics analyzed whether Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) leads to larger and more volatile levels of allowance than under the Incurred Loss Model (ILM).

    February 2021 WebPage Laurent Birade, Phillip Lai
    Article

    21 in 21: The Big Picture

    Twenty-one Moody's Analytics experts share their views on what will drive markets and risk management strategies in 2021.

    December 2020 WebPage
    Whitepaper

    CECL Resources: A Framework and Benchmarks for Allowance Adjustments

    Moody's Analytics has developed a framework that addresses areas of uncertainty and provides ongoing comparability analysis.

    August 2020 WebPage Alex Cannon, Ian McCready, Laurent Birade, Phillip Lai
    Whitepaper

    Whitepaper: CECL Build – Is it Enough?

    In this paper, we set out to estimate, based on 14 top financial institutions, a lower- and upper-bound current expected credit loss (CECL) estimate as of March 31, 2020.

    August 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, Phillip Lai
    Whitepaper

    Concentration Risk Consideration During the Allowance Process and COVID-19's Impact

    COVID-19 created additional complexities for institutions navigating CECL accounting standard. This paper provides a natural quantitative approach for incorporating concentration in the allowance process and portfolio management.

    April 2020 WebPage Amnon Levy, Masha Muzyka, Pierre Xu
    Article

    Non-bank Players are Ready for CECL — Are Banks?

    The initial intent of the CECL guidelines was to make loan-loss allowances more reactive to the credit environment. By setting aside greater allowances, organizations would be better prepared for a default.

    February 2020 WebPage Amnon Levy
    Article

    PCD assets post-CECL: The real-world implications of an accounting change

    One benefit CECL will bring to the accounting space is moving away from the complicated and burdensome accounting for Purchase Credit Impaired (PCI) assets.

    January 2020 WebPage Scott Dietz
    Article

    Cards and CECL estimates

    Recent CECL impact disclosures point directly to credit cards as the largest driver of the allowance. We can confirm those recent disclosures by looking at the consumer default volumes chart in Figure 1,which clearly point to the credit card segment as being one of the largest contributors of loss today.

    January 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, David Fieldhouse
    Article

    Concerned With Forecast Uncertainty in CECL? Look Beyond the Baseline

    Using multiple scenarios in CECL can temper some of the volatility in the economic forecasts – the part that results from our inability to forecast the economy with complete precision.

    Article

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Reasonable and Supportable Forecasts - From Principles to Practice

    With many of the larger SEC filers well ahead in their CECL preparations and gearing up for validation, we examine how the requirements of an R&S forecast and reversion may be interpreted.

    Article

    CECL, IFRS 9 and the Demand for Forecast Stability

    Loan-loss provisioning models must take a variety of economic and client factors into account, but, with the right approach, banks can develop sensible loss forecasts that are more accurate and less susceptible to volatility.

    June 2019 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Leveraging Historical Loss Data for CECL

    This paper explores the CECL standard's background, the choices community banks, regional banks, and credit unions face, and some suggested approaches for dealing with these challenges.

    June 2019 WebPage Laurent Birade, Dr. Yashan Wang, Warren Xu
    Article

    Defining Economic Scenarios With Constant Severities

    Alternative economic scenarios are invaluable for quantifying and managing forecast risk. In this article, we define these constant severity scenarios and the models used to estimate their probabilities.

    Article

    Reporting and CECL: A Seismic Shift for Accountants

    From an accounting standpoint, the changes in how to account for credit-loss reserves within the banking, insurance, and lending industries stemming from the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) current expected credit losses (CECL) guidance are significant.

    May 2019 WebPage Scott Dietz
    Article

    Podcast: CECL – New Accounting Standard and Its Impact on Community Banks

    Moody's Analytics Director Robby Holditch recently visited the Barret School of Banking to discuss the upcoming current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting standard and its ramifications for the community banking space.

    May 2019 WebPage
    Whitepaper

    Earnings Volatility, Share Price Performance, and Credit Portfolio Management Under CECL and IFRS 9

    This paper studies how earnings volatility induced by credit risk can impact share price performance for financial institutions under CECL and IFRS 9, and quantifies the benefit of an active credit risk management practice.

    April 2019 WebPage Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Pierre Xu
    Article

    Finding a CECL Solution for Smaller Banks

    Good-quality CECL projections can be developed using high-quality data that is available free of charge.

    April 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    A Framework for Disclosing Period-over-Period CECL-Estimate Changes

    While many institutions are currently in the throes of implementing the current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting standard, some are thinking ahead and some that are not. CECL will have an unavoidable impact on management disclosures, specifically around explaining period-over-period changes in allowance.

    March 2019 WebPage Laurent Birade
    Whitepaper

    Chartis Research | Moody's Analytics Credit Risk Vendor Analysis Report

    Moody's Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools supported by risk expertise, expansive information resources, and the application of new technology. Its solutions, made up of research, data, software and professional services, are assembled with the aim of delivering a seamless customer experience.

    February 2019 Pdf
    Article

    Moody's Analytics Wins the Strategy Category Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

    Winning a game of chess requires strategy and tactics, seeing where the game will go next and making deft, skilful moves accordingly. The winners in the RiskTech100 ® awards are vendors thinking like grand masters, succeeding with decision-making and looking into the future to unlock opportunities.

    February 2019 WebPage
    Article

    CECL Is In Trouble, But There's A Fix

    If CECL is to be rethought with this aim in mind, policymakers should learn from successful countercyclical features in the economy and design the new loan loss accounting system accordingly.

    January 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Moody's Analytics Wins the CECL Category Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

    Moody's Analytics Wins CECL Category Award in 2019 Chartis RiskTech100

    January 2019 WebPage
    Article

    Modeling Credit Card Losses Under CECL

    Through this study, we illustrate the challenges for modelers under CECL and assess the impact of the new accounting standards.

    January 2019 Pdf David Fieldhouse
    Article

    Gauging CECL Cyclicality

    In this paper, we provide empirical support for the conclusion that the CECL standard will be less procyclical than the incurred loss standard.

    December 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi, Cristian deRitis
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