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Reporting and CECL: A Seismic Shift for Accountants

From an accounting standpoint, the changes in how to account for credit-loss reserves within the banking, insurance, and lending industries stemming from the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) current expected credit losses (CECL) guidance are significant.

May 2019 WebPage Scott Dietz
Article

Podcast: CECL – New Accounting Standard and Its Impact on Community Banks

Moody's Analytics Director Robby Holditch recently visited the Barret School of Banking to discuss the upcoming current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting standard and its ramifications for the community banking space.

May 2019 WebPage
Article

Earnings Volatility, Share Price Performance, and Credit Portfolio Management Under CECL and IFRS 9

This paper studies how earnings volatility induced by credit risk can impact share price performance for financial institutions under CECL and IFRS 9, and quantifies the benefit of an active credit risk management practice.

April 2019 WebPage Dr. Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Dr. Pierre Xu
Article

A Framework for Disclosing Period-over-Period CECL-Estimate Changes

While many institutions are currently in the throes of implementing the current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting standard, some are thinking ahead and some that are not. CECL will have an unavoidable impact on management disclosures, specifically around explaining period-over-period changes in allowance.

March 2019 WebPage Laurent Birade
Whitepaper

Chartis Research | Moody's Analytics Credit Risk Vendor Analysis Report

Moody's Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools supported by risk expertise, expansive information resources, and the application of new technology. Its solutions, made up of research, data, software and professional services, are assembled with the aim of delivering a seamless customer experience.

February 2019 Pdf
Article

Moody's Analytics Wins the Strategy Category Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

Winning a game of chess requires strategy and tactics, seeing where the game will go next and making deft, skilful moves accordingly. The winners in the RiskTech100 ® awards are vendors thinking like grand masters, succeeding with decision-making and looking into the future to unlock opportunities.

February 2019 WebPage
Article

Moody's Analytics Wins the CECL Category Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

Moody's Analytics Wins CECL Category Award in 2019 Chartis RiskTech100

January 2019 WebPage
Article

Modeling Credit Card Losses Under CECL

Through this study, we illustrate the challenges for modelers under CECL and assess the impact of the new accounting standards.

January 2019 Pdf David Fieldhouse
Article

Gauging CECL Cyclicality

In this paper, we provide empirical support for the conclusion that the CECL standard will be less procyclical than the incurred loss standard.

December 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

CECL Roundtable FAQs

In light of the Current Expected Credit Loss accounting standard to be issued by the Federal Accounting Standards Board, Moody's Analytics hosted a CECL Economic Scenario roundtable. The objective was to have an open dialogue around economic forecasting techniques for calculating life-of-loan expected credit losses

November 2018 WebPage
Article

CECL: Credit Cards and Lifetime Estimation - A Reasonable Approach

Many institutions are struggling to apply the CECL standard as it pertains to credit cards, and in particular determining the lifetime value for credit card portfolios. In this paper, we explore the different approaches to evaluating lifetime estimates for the credit card portfolio.

September 2018 WebPage Laurent Birade
Article

CECL Impact on Credit Loss Allowances for U.S. Auto Loans

This paper examines the impact of adopting current expected credit loss (CECL) standards for U.S. auto lenders. We use a dataset of national retail auto loans to illustrate potential changes in model-based allowances across the industry. Our analysis shows that on the first day of CECL adoption, loss allowances for U.S. auto lenders could increase by as much as 1.5 to 2.5 times the current allowances.

September 2018 Pdf Moody's Analytics
Article

Mean Reversion in CECL: The What and the How

Mean reversion is an important facet of the upcoming Current Expected Credit Loss accounting standard. Under CECL, lenders will need to estimate, and set aside an allowance for, the expected lifetime loss for each loan they book at the time of origination.

September 2018 WebPage Dr. Sohini Chowdhury, Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

CECLnomics and the Promise of Countercyclical Loss Accounting

Historically, accounting regulations have not served as regulatory tools in bank examiners' toolkits. Economic capital calculations, leverage ratios, and stress tests are used to assess capital adequacy, while the primary purpose of financial statements has been to inform investors of the recent performance

September 2018 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

Assigning Probabilities to Macroeconomic Alternative Scenarios

Both the IFRS 9 and CECL accounting standards move from an incurred loss impairment model to a forward-looking framework that requires banks to calculate lifetime expected credit losses.

September 2018 WebPage Stephen Ciccarella
Article

To Follow the Pack or Not: CECL Based on the Consensus

One of the key differentiators between the upcoming Current Expected Credit Loss and the current incurred loss accounting process is the formal incorporation of forward-looking forecast information.

September 2018 WebPage Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Article

Beyond Theory: A Practical Guide to Using Economic Forecasts for CECL Estimates

In this paper, we discuss some of the options that institutions have for incorporating economic forecasts into their expected loan loss reserve calculations. We discuss the benefits and costs of each approach and provide practical recommendations based on institution size and complexity.

Article

Improving Risk Ratings in Preparation for CECL

When calculating expected credit losses, accuracy is paramount. This is a challenging task, but there are specific steps financial institutions can take to build meaningful risk ratings that lead to more precise loss calculations and better, more informed decisions.

August 2018 WebPage Christian Henkel
Whitepaper

Beyond Theory: A Practical Guide to Using Economic Forecasts for CECL Estimates

Starting in 2020, the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) accounting standard will require financial institutions to reserve for estimated lifetime losses on loans and leases as soon as they are originated, and incorporate macroeconomic forecasts formally into their loss allowance estimates for the first time.

Article

The Impact of Assumptions on the CECL Estimate

Across institutions of all sizes, one of the questions executive management should be asking their CECL working groups is, "What is the impact to our bottom line?"

August 2018 WebPage Masha Muzyka
Whitepaper

Features of a Lifetime PD Model: Evidence from Public, Private, and Rated Firms

With the new CECL and IFRS 9 requirements, this document formally investigates and summarizes the term structure properties consistently seen across public, private, and rated firms.

May 2018 WebPage Sajjad Beygiharchegani, Uliana Makarov, Dr. Janet Zhao, Dr. Douglas Dwyer
Whitepaper

A Composite Capital Measure Unifying Business Decision Rules in the Face of Regulatory Requirements Under New Accounting Standards

This paper introduces an approach that quantifies the additional capital buffer an institution requires, beyond the required regulatory minimum, to limit the likelihood of a capital breach.

May 2018 WebPage Dr. Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Dr. Pierre Xu
Whitepaper

A Composite Capital Measure Unifying Business Decision Rules in the Face of Regulatory Requirements Under New Accounting Standards

Prudent credit risk management ensures institutions maintain sufficient capital and limit the possibility of a capital breach. With CECL and IFRS 9, the resulting trend toward greater credit earnings volatility raises uncertainty in capital supply, ultimately causing an increase in required capital. It is ever more challenging for institutions to manage their top-of-the house capital while steering their business to achieve the desired performance level. This paper introduces an approach that quantifies the additional capital buffer an institution requires, beyond the required regulatory minimum, to limit the likelihood of a capital breach. In addition, we introduce a new measure that allocates capital and recognizes an instrument's regulatory capital requirements, loss allowance, economic concentration risks, and the instrument's contribution to the uncertainty in capital supply and demand. In-line with the Composite Capital Measure introduced in Levy and Xu (2017), this extended measure includes far-reaching implications for business decisions. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate the limitations of alternative measures and how institutions can optimize performance by allocating capital and making business decisions according to the new measure.

May 2018 Pdf Dr. Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Dr. Pierre Xu
Article

CECL Economic Scenarios Survey

The Financial Accounting Standards Board's new current expected credit loss impairment standard requires timely, forward-looking measurement of lifetime risk.

April 2018 WebPage
Whitepaper

Measuring and Managing the Impact of IFRS 9 and CECL Requirements on Dynamics in Allowance, Earnings, and Bank Capital

This paper explores how CECL and IFRS 9 might impact loss allowance, earnings, and capital dynamics, and how these dynamics might affect credit portfolio management.

April 2018 WebPage Dr. Amnon Levy, Dr. Jing Zhang
Whitepaper

Measuring and Managing the Impact of IFRS 9 and CECL Requirements on Dynamics in Allowance, Earnings, and Bank Capital

Reserving for loan loss is one of the most important accounting aspects for banks. Its objective is to cover estimated losses on impaired financial instruments due to defaults and non-payment. Reserve measurement affects both the balance sheet and income statement. It impacts earnings, capital, dividends and bonuses, and attracts the attention of bank stakeholders ranging from the board of directors and regulators to equity investors. In response to the so-called “too-little, too-late” problem experienced with loan loss reserve during the Great Financial Crisis, accounting standard setters now require that banks provision against loan loss based on expected credit losses (ECL). Arguably, calculating the Expected Credit Loss Model under IFRS 9 and CECL presents a momentous accounting change for banks, with the new standards coming into effect sometime between 2018 and 2021, depending on the jurisdiction.

March 2018 Pdf Dr. Amnon Levy, Dr. Jing Zhang
Whitepaper

How Much Will CECL Impact Reserves for First Mortgage Portfolios?

In this article, we narrow the task of quantifying the overall impact of adopting CECL to the impact on first mortgage portfolios, as this line of business constitutes the biggest portion of consumer credit.

February 2018 Pdf Dr. Deniz Tudor
Whitepaper

How Much Will CECL Impact Reserves for First Mortgage Portfolios?

This article undertakes the task of quantifying the overall impact of adopting CECL to the impact on first mortgage portfolios, as this line of business constitutes the biggest portion of consumer credit.

December 2017 WebPage Dr. Deniz Tudor, Timothy Daigle
Whitepaper

Economic Scenarios: What's Reasonable and Supportable?

Banks and lenders need forecasts to ensure they charge a sufficient amount of interest to cover loan defaults and remain solvent during times of stress.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

Predicting Earnings: CECL's Implications for Allowance Forecasts

In this article, we demonstrate the effect of the new allowance framework by quantifying allowances and credit earnings volatility for a sample portfolio.

July 2017 WebPage Joy Hart, Anna Labowicz
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