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Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default

The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

July 2019 WebPage Petr Zemcik
Article

Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

July 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Economic Implications of Climate Change

We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

June 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
Article

LatAm Central Bankers Bask in Fed Pause

Rate cut or not, the Federal Reserve's easing bias is a relief for the region.

June 2019 Pdf Jesse Rogers
Article

Chile Reverses on Monetary Normalization

The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.

June 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Join Moody's Analytics' Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax.

June 2019 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Article

The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

June 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Veasna Kong, Brendan Meighan
Article

Defining Economic Scenarios With Constant Severities

Alternative economic scenarios are invaluable for quantifying and managing forecast risk. In this article, we define these constant severity scenarios and the models used to estimate their probabilities.

Article

Venezuela Outlook: Another Year of Double- Digit Contraction

Sanctions, blackouts, and the political crisis sink the economy even deeper.

May 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
Webinar-on-Demand

Middle East Economic Outlook – Rising Geopolitical Risks

The region's economies should steadily grow, but the risks are mounting.

May 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
Webinar-on-Demand

Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

May 2019 WebPage Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane
Presentation

Middle East Outlook – Rising Geopolitical Risks - Presentation Slides

The region's economies should steadily grow, but the risks are mounting.

May 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
Webinar-on-Demand

Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

Presentation

CECL 20/20: A Clear View of the New Credit Loss Requirements

Starting in 2020, the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) accounting standard will require financial institutions to reserve for estimated lifetime losses on loans and leases as soon as they are originated. This presentation will provide analytical insight and practical recommendations to help lenders strategize and effectively prepare for the new rule.

Article

Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Needed Pause in Demand

The gradual disinflation in Canada's housing market continues at a steady pace.

May 2019 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

RPS– Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook Webinar

Join the housing experts and authors of the RPS – Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative Canadian house price forecast solution available, as they provide their insights and report their findings as we enter the spring real estate market.

May 14, 2019 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Webinar-on-Demand

RPS– Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook Webinar

Listen to the housing experts and authors of the RPS – Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative Canadian house price forecast solution available, as they provide their insights and report their findings as we enter the spring real estate market.

May 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
Article

Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

May 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
Article

A Damaging State of Flux

The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.

Presentation

A CECL Benchmark Solution from Call Report Data for Banks and Credit Unions

Top-down approach for small institutions, small and/or young portfolios that produces scenario-conditioned lifetime net losses at different evaluation dates.

May 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Presentation

Leveraging Economic Forecasts Through Qualitative Overlays

How to Leverage R&S Economic Forecasts in CECL? In this presentation we demonstrate how to incorporate scenarios effectively.

May 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Article

China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

April 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
Article

Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

April 2019 Pdf Faraz Syed
Article

Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border

Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana
Article

Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2019

América Latina se encamina a su segundo año de recuperación en el 2019, con una mejoría más generalizada a nivel de países.

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Latin America Economic Outlook 2019

Latin America is heading toward a second year of recovery in 2019 with continued general improvement across countries. However, key risks threaten to adversely affect the region’s economic performance.

Article

Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
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