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    Article

    Evaluating Senator Warren's Social Security Reform Plan

    This brief paper outlines Senator Warren's reform plan and evaluates its actuarial, macroeconomic and distributional impacts.

    September 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done

    Based on simulations of the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, this paper examines the consequences for the U.S. and global economies in different scenarios regarding how the trade war between the U.S. and China will unfold.

    September 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi, Jesse Rogers
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Next Recession

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane, Ryan Sweet
    Article

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Jesse Rogers
    Article

    A Comparative Analysis of Household Credit Data From the New York Fed and Moody's Analytics

    The importance of accurate and timely data on household credit conditions became clear during the global financial crisis. Quickly rising delinquencies and foreclosures should have been a warning to lenders and regulators to significantly tighten the spigot on new lending that was wide open during the pre-crisis boom. However, partially due to data limitations, many financial institutions were surprised by the weakening of household balance sheets. By the time they realized the severity of the problem, it was too late to act.

    August 2019 Pdf Michael Brisson, Dr. Deniz Tudor
    Article

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Presentation

    CECL Methodologies: Loss Rate Model and Cohort Analysis

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Presentation

    CECL: Determining Correct Segments for Loss Pooling

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Presentation

    CECL Methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow Approach

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Article

    Household Credit Conditions Never Better

    More than a decade after the financial crisis that was caused in significant part by debt-burdened households, there is no indication that household debt will be at the center of the next economic recession.

    August 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Economic Implications of Climate Change

    The effects of climate change will intensify throughout the century, resulting in profound changes in climate patterns across the globe.

    August 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis
    Article

    Reasonable and Supportable Forecasts - From Principles to Practice

    With many of the larger SEC filers well ahead in their CECL preparations and gearing up for validation, we examine how the requirements of an R&S forecast and reversion may be interpreted.

    Article

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Webinar: NIIF9- Escenarios Macroeconómicos en el Cálculo de Pérdidas Esperadas

    Únase a nosotros para examinar los desafíos de cumplir con las normas contables NIIF 9, un año después de su implementación.

    July 2019 WebPage Anamaria Pieschacon
    Presentation

    IFRS 9 for Cooperatives

    Presentation from the World Credit Union Conference July 28, 2019 - Agenda: How is IFRS 9 Different? \ Implementation Checklist for Cooperatives \ Impacts on Regulatory Capital and Volatility

    July 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Presentation

    CECL – Using a Reasonable and Supportable Forecast (Presentation Slides)

    The new CECL accounting standard requires institutions to incorporate forward-looking information in their estimate of expected lifetime losses.

    Article

    The Real Value of Stress Testing: Has CCAR Been Validated?

    The theory that banks are now safer because of CCAR, though, has not yet been tested.

    July 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Presentation

    Regional Economic Health Report & CECL

    Presented at the National Credit Union Management Association Conference, July 2019. Agenda: 1. Regional Economic Performance at a Glance 2. Near Term Risks 3. What to Expect from CECL?

    July 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default

    The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

    July 2019 WebPage Petr Zemcik
    Article

    Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

    Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

    July 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    LatAm Central Bankers Bask in Fed Pause

    Rate cut or not, the Federal Reserve's easing bias is a relief for the region.

    June 2019 Pdf Jesse Rogers
    Article

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    June 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

    Join Moody's Analytics' Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax.

    June 2019 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
    Article

    Chile Reverses on Monetary Normalization

    The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.

    June 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

    Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

    June 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Veasna Kong, Brendan Meighan
    Article

    Climate Change Stress Testing

    As evidence of climate change builds and threats materialize,data will be invaluable in creating a framework for making future credit decisions.

    June 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Defining Economic Scenarios With Constant Severities

    Alternative economic scenarios are invaluable for quantifying and managing forecast risk. In this article, we define these constant severity scenarios and the models used to estimate their probabilities.

    Article

    Venezuela Outlook: Another Year of Double- Digit Contraction

    Sanctions, blackouts, and the political crisis sink the economy even deeper.

    May 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
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