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    The Next Recession

    The U.S. and global economies are struggling under the weight of the U.S.-China trade war and a range of other geopolitical threats. Can the global economy avoid an economic recession?

    November 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Presentation

    Transmission of Economic and Financial Shocks: Getting Prepared for the Next Downturn or Crisis

    We examine past histories of recessions and crises to identify hidden vulnerabilities and weak links in the economy and financial system. ‍

    November 2019 Pdf Zhong Zhuang, Dr. Jing Zhang
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Identifying Areas of Potential Growth - Opportunity Zones

    The Opportunity Zone (OZ) program offers substantial federal tax incentives in exchange for capital investment in under-resourced areas.

    November 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
    Presentation

    A VUCA Economy: Decoding the Signals

    Amongst all the recession chatter, what are the economic indicators really saying? Sohini connects the dots in this presentation.

    October 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Webinar: Europe Economic Outlook - Cloud of Uncertainty

    We consider the leading indicators of recession, the potential timing of the downturn, its severity and length.

    October 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Petr Zemcik
    Article

    Searching for Opportunity in the Land of OZ

    The Opportunity Zone (OZ) program offers substantial federal tax incentives in exchange for capital investment in under-resourced areas. This creates challenges for investors, policymakers and other stakeholders when trying to evaluate the more than 8,700 Opportunity Zones in their entirety. In this paper, we leverage our opportunity zones

    October 2019 Pdf Dan White
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Who Will Be the Next President?

    In this timely webinar, Mark Zandi, Dan White and Bernard Yaros examine the prospects for the U.S. presidential election based on their modeling of the past 10 Presidential elections. We also will assess the impact of voter turnout on the election results, something that had a significant impact on the 2016 election outcome

    October 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi
    Article

    2020 Presidential Election Model

    The economy may not be top of mind for voters in every election, but it is hardly ever further than a close second. This is the principle underpinning Moody's Analytics presidential election models.

    October 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi, Dan White
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: The Fundamentals Start to Pull

    Canada's housing market seems on course for a soft landing given the lack of deterioration in mortgage debt arrears so far.

    October 2019 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Conservative Banks Do Not Need Conservative Models

    When banks manage risk, conservatism is a virtue. We, as citizens, want banks to hold slightly more capital than strictly necessary and to make, at the margin, more provisions for potential loan losses. Moreover, we want them to be generally cautious in their underwriting. But what is the best way to arrive at these conservative calculations?

    October 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Vietnam Economic Outlook: Tiptoeing Toward the Winner's Circle

    Despite risks to the downside, the country will remain one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

    September 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Steven Shields
    Presentation

    The Next Recession - APAC Edition

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Mark Zandi
    Article

    Chilean Corporates Well Equipped for a Crunch

    High levels of foreign direct investment lower the risk of corporate leverage.

    September 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Model Validation Need Not Be a Blood Sport

    The traditional build-and-validate modeling approach is expensive and taxing. A more positive and productive validation experience entails competing models developed by independent teams.

    September 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Evaluating Senator Warren's Social Security Reform Plan

    This brief paper outlines Senator Warren's reform plan and evaluates its actuarial, macroeconomic and distributional impacts.

    September 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done

    Based on simulations of the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, this paper examines the consequences for the U.S. and global economies in different scenarios regarding how the trade war between the U.S. and China will unfold.

    September 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi, Jesse Rogers
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Next Recession

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane, Ryan Sweet
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Webinar: The Next Recession - APAC Edition

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Jesse Rogers
    Article

    A Comparative Analysis of Household Credit Data From the New York Fed and Moody's Analytics

    The importance of accurate and timely data on household credit conditions became clear during the global financial crisis. Quickly rising delinquencies and foreclosures should have been a warning to lenders and regulators to significantly tighten the spigot on new lending that was wide open during the pre-crisis boom. However, partially due to data limitations, many financial institutions were surprised by the weakening of household balance sheets. By the time they realized the severity of the problem, it was too late to act.

    August 2019 Pdf Michael Brisson, Dr. Deniz Tudor
    Article

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Presentation

    CECL Methodologies: Loss Rate Model and Cohort Analysis

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Presentation

    CECL Methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow Approach

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Presentation

    CECL: Determining Correct Segments for Loss Pooling

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Article

    Household Credit Conditions Never Better

    More than a decade after the financial crisis that was caused in significant part by debt-burdened households, there is no indication that household debt will be at the center of the next economic recession.

    August 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Reasonable and Supportable Forecasts - From Principles to Practice

    With many of the larger SEC filers well ahead in their CECL preparations and gearing up for validation, we examine how the requirements of an R&S forecast and reversion may be interpreted.

    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Economic Implications of Climate Change

    The effects of climate change will intensify throughout the century, resulting in profound changes in climate patterns across the globe.

    August 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis
    Article

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
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