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Article

Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Needed Pause in Demand

The gradual disinflation in Canada's housing market continues at a steady pace.

May 2019 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

RPS– Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook Webinar

Join the housing experts and authors of the RPS – Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative Canadian house price forecast solution available, as they provide their insights and report their findings as we enter the spring real estate market.

May 14, 2019 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Webinar-on-Demand

RPS– Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook Webinar

Listen to the housing experts and authors of the RPS – Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative Canadian house price forecast solution available, as they provide their insights and report their findings as we enter the spring real estate market.

May 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
Article

A Damaging State of Flux

The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.

Presentation

Leveraging Economic Forecasts Through Qualitative Overlays

How to Leverage R&S Economic Forecasts in CECL? In this presentation we demonstrate how to incorporate scenarios effectively.

May 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Presentation

A CECL Benchmark Solution from Call Report Data for Banks and Credit Unions

Top-down approach for small institutions, small and/or young portfolios that produces scenario-conditioned lifetime net losses at different evaluation dates.

May 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Article

China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

April 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
Article

Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

April 2019 Pdf Faraz Syed
Article

Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border

Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Latin America Economic Outlook 2019

Latin America is heading toward a second year of recovery in 2019 with continued general improvement across countries. However, key risks threaten to adversely affect the region’s economic performance.

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2019

América Latina se encamina a su segundo año de recuperación en el 2019, con una mejoría más generalizada a nivel de países.

Article

Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

Article

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana
Article

Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
Article

Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Listen as Moody's Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax. Key topics include:

February 2019 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor

Moody's Analytics Webinar: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Join Moody's Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax.

February 27, 2019 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Article

ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Validating Models Effectively

Listen as Anamaria Pieschacon and Michael Brisson a discuss effective approaches for validating consumer credit risk models.

February 2019 WebPage Anamaria Pieschacon, Michael Brisson

Mexico Under a Severe Economic Scenario

A severely adverse economic scenario in the U.S. will cause severe damage to Mexico's economy. If the Federal Reserve's severe scenario to test the strength and resilience of banking institutions materializes, Mexico's economy would suffer profoundly. The negative consequences will surpass in magnitude and duration those faced by the Mexican economy during the global recession in 2008-2009.

February 20, 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Canada Housing Market Outlook: Slower, Steadier

The Canadian housing market is going through a period of decompression

Article

South America Under Hypothetical Stress Scenarios

Applying the Fed's latest CCAR parameters, the region's recessions would be deeper than in the U.S.

February 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve have released its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Listen as Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis discuss the narratives behind the Fed's scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.

February 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

Latin American Currency Highlights: Determining the Risk of a Large Currency Depreciation for 15 Countries

Latin American countries have a shaky history when it comes to stable foreign exchange. Several countries are facing economic and political upheaval, which may significantly impact the value of their currencies. Using the Moody's Analytics Currency Depreciation Indicator, we evaluate the coming year for 15 Latin American countries.

February 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics

Deconstructing Scenario Weights for CECL

In this paper we present the theoretical motivation behind these weights and suggests reasonable ways of choosing these weights in practice.

Article

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

February 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: 2019 Middle East Outlook – A Rosy Future for Oil Exporters

In this webinar, Moody's Analytics economists discuss Middle East's macroeconomic outlook with particular focus on the prospects for the Emirati and Saudi economies.

February 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: ImpairmentCalc™ - Understanding IFRS 9 ECL Volatility

ImpairmentCalc™ software produces IFRS 9 ECL estimates which are both forward-looking and incorporate the latest changes in the macroeconomic environment.

January 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics: 2019 U.S. Macro Outlook - From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle

The next recession is coming into view but probably will not arrive in the coming year as many seem to fear.

January 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi
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