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    Article

    Chilean Corporates Well Equipped for a Crunch

    High levels of foreign direct investment lower the risk of corporate leverage.

    September 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Jesse Rogers
    Article

    Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

    Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

    July 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    LatAm Central Bankers Bask in Fed Pause

    Rate cut or not, the Federal Reserve's easing bias is a relief for the region.

    June 2019 Pdf Jesse Rogers
    Article

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    June 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Chile Reverses on Monetary Normalization

    The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.

    June 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    Venezuela Outlook: Another Year of Double- Digit Contraction

    Sanctions, blackouts, and the political crisis sink the economy even deeper.

    May 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
    Article

    Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border

    Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.

    April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

    América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

    April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

    Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana
    Article

    Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

    We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

    Webinar-on-Demand

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2019

    América Latina se encamina a su segundo año de recuperación en el 2019, con una mejoría más generalizada a nivel de países.

    Webinar-on-Demand

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Latin America Economic Outlook 2019

    Latin America is heading toward a second year of recovery in 2019 with continued general improvement across countries. However, key risks threaten to adversely affect the region’s economic performance.

    Mexico Under a Severe Economic Scenario

    A severely adverse economic scenario in the U.S. will cause severe damage to Mexico's economy. If the Federal Reserve's severe scenario to test the strength and resilience of banking institutions materializes, Mexico's economy would suffer profoundly. The negative consequences will surpass in magnitude and duration those faced by the Mexican economy during the global recession in 2008-2009.

    February 20, 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
    Article

    South America Under Hypothetical Stress Scenarios

    Applying the Fed's latest CCAR parameters, the region's recessions would be deeper than in the U.S.

    February 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
    Article

    Latin American Currency Highlights: Determining the Risk of a Large Currency Depreciation for 15 Countries

    Latin American countries have a shaky history when it comes to stable foreign exchange. Several countries are facing economic and political upheaval, which may significantly impact the value of their currencies. Using the Moody's Analytics Currency Depreciation Indicator, we evaluate the coming year for 15 Latin American countries.

    February 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

    In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

    June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins
    Article

    The Venezuela Crisis and Consequences for South America

    This paper assesses the economic consequences for Venezuela and the rest of South America if Maduro serves out his new presidential term, and if he is cast from office.

    June 2018 Pdf Marisa DiNatale , Jesse Rogers
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