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Article

Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

July 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Economic Implications of Climate Change

We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

June 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
Article

LatAm Central Bankers Bask in Fed Pause

Rate cut or not, the Federal Reserve's easing bias is a relief for the region.

June 2019 Pdf Jesse Rogers
Article

Chile Reverses on Monetary Normalization

The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.

June 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Venezuela Outlook: Another Year of Double- Digit Contraction

Sanctions, blackouts, and the political crisis sink the economy even deeper.

May 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
Article

Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border

Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana
Article

Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2019

América Latina se encamina a su segundo año de recuperación en el 2019, con una mejoría más generalizada a nivel de países.

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Latin America Economic Outlook 2019

Latin America is heading toward a second year of recovery in 2019 with continued general improvement across countries. However, key risks threaten to adversely affect the region’s economic performance.

Mexico Under a Severe Economic Scenario

A severely adverse economic scenario in the U.S. will cause severe damage to Mexico's economy. If the Federal Reserve's severe scenario to test the strength and resilience of banking institutions materializes, Mexico's economy would suffer profoundly. The negative consequences will surpass in magnitude and duration those faced by the Mexican economy during the global recession in 2008-2009.

February 20, 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño
Article

South America Under Hypothetical Stress Scenarios

Applying the Fed's latest CCAR parameters, the region's recessions would be deeper than in the U.S.

February 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes
Article

Latin American Currency Highlights: Determining the Risk of a Large Currency Depreciation for 15 Countries

Latin American countries have a shaky history when it comes to stable foreign exchange. Several countries are facing economic and political upheaval, which may significantly impact the value of their currencies. Using the Moody's Analytics Currency Depreciation Indicator, we evaluate the coming year for 15 Latin American countries.

February 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
Webinar-on-Demand

Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins
Article

The Venezuela Crisis and Consequences for South America

This paper assesses the economic consequences for Venezuela and the rest of South America if Maduro serves out his new presidential term, and if he is cast from office.

June 2018 Pdf Marisa DiNatale , Jesse Rogers
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