Economic Forecast Scenarios for COVID-19

TRUSTED, TIMELY & TRANSPARENT

Economic Forecast Scenarios

Baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios that examine how the future economy will perform under differing assumptions.

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Key Analysis

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Forecast Methodology

In this paper, we provide a high-level overview of our fully documented forecast model, which interlinks trade flows, financial markets, prices and investments. Download our Global Macro Model description.

Scenario Analysis

Handicapping the Paths for the Economy
Assessing COVID-19 Under Alternative Scenarios
U.S. Retail Credit Portfolios Under Scenarios
Stress Testing Under COVID-19
Stress-Testing States: COVID-19 Scenarios

Economic Insights

Update on the COVID-19 Crisis
Economic Outlook for US & Canada
Economic Outlook for Europe
Economic Outlook for Latin America
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Why Use Economic Forecast Scenarios?

Moody's Analytics Economic Forecast Scenarios are the foundation of "what if?" analysis for risk management and strategic planning needs. Clients from a broad range of industries use our scenarios to test the impact of shocks and differing economic assumptions on their businesses and portfolios. Scenarios are produced and maintained by a team of more than 80 experienced economists using our fully specified global macroeconomic forecast model.

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A Message from Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics

COVID-19 has created a worldwide economic tsunami. The global economy is engulfed in a serious downturn. The virus has caused significant parts of the Asian and now European and U.S. economies to all but shut down.

How much economic damage COVID-19 ultimately does will depend on the trajectory of the virus and how governments respond.

Key Features

Comprehensive Coverage

Our economists produce forecasts for 100+ countries and 12,000+ variables using our fully-specified structural global macroeconomic model. Countries are interlinked by trade flows, financial markets, prices and investments.

Fully Documented

We furnish a fully documented model methodology and validation reports as well as narratives for our baseline forecasts and each scenario. Clients also have access to economists, data and client services teams for support.

Updated Monthly

Forecasts are updated monthly. Underlying historical data are updated as soon as sources publish new figures. We estimate gaps in as-reported data to create uninterrupted time series that are consistent across geographies.

Flexible Delivery Options

Download or automate delivery of forecasts through our Data Buffet service, access directly within Excel using our Add-in, or retrieve programmatically via an API. All delivery options are complementary with your subscription.

Benefits

ACCURACY

Analyze with confidence using scenarios maintained by 80+ economists.

TIMELINESS

Account for the most recent data and expectations with monthly scenario updates.

DEPTH

Take advantage of scenarios that include a comprehensive set of economic indicators.

TRANSPARENCY

Fully understand our forecast methodology and assumptions through detailed documentation.

Use Cases

Stress Testing

Mitigate risk by proactively assessing losses and capital levels under various scenarios. By linking your performance drivers to the global economic activity represented in our scenarios, you can generate more realistic results.

Expected Credit Loss (ECL)

Employ multiple, defensible, probability-weighted scenarios to calculate expected credit losses for IFRS 9 and CECL. Leverage a comprehensive set of indicators beyond headline numbers to gain insights into specific risk factors.

Business & Contingency Planning

Strategically plan for potential economic impacts on the performance of your portfolios and business. Assess thousands of series under various scenarios, including GDP, unemployment, demographics, prices and more.

Risk Management & Validation

Benchmark internal forecasts and models under independent scenarios to expose vulnerabilities to mitigate risk more effectively.

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Complete this form to get more information about our scenarios, including pricing, delivery and integration options.

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