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Used-Car Price Outlook: 2018Q2

MICHAEL VOGAN, SEP 2018

The auto industry’s surprising momentum at the start of the year continued through the second quarter of 2018. New-vehicle sales logged 17.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter, up by 2.3% from the same time last year. The 17.5 million SAAR unit sales in June stood out as being well above consensus expectations. Light-truck and SUV sales reached an all-time high of 11.9 million SAAR units while car sales logged a dismal 5.3 million SAAR units—only 15% more cars sold compared with the worst quarters of the Great Recession. Incentives, estimated by ALG and J.D. Power, averaged about $3,700 per vehicle and undoubtedly contributed to the enduring strength of the new-vehicle market.. Download the full analysis.

Chart Book

Auto Lease Total: Default Balance (Mil. $, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics

Auto Lease Total: Originations Number (ths, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics
Auto Loan Total: Default Balance (Mil. $, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics

Auto Loan Total: Originations Number (ths, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Jan1995=100, SA) Source: Mainheim, Moody's Analytics

New Vehicle Sales (Mil. #, SAAR) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody's Analytics

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