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Used-Car Price Outlook: Light at the End of the Tunnel

MICHAEL VOGAN, MARCH 2018

Used car prices continued to slide in 2017, though economic evidence suggests that tides will begin to change in 2018. Spent-up new vehicle demand and tightening credit conditions will have very important implications for used vehicle markets over the next few years. Tightening credit standards among lenders, rising interest rates, and attractively priced, high quality used inventory will cause consumers to seriously consider the used market as an alternative to buying new, which will help buttress demand and consequently prices.Download the full analysis.

Chart Book

Auto Lease Total: Default Balance (Mil. $, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics

Auto Lease Total: Originations Number (ths, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics
Auto Loan Total: Default Balance (Mil. $, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics

Auto Loan Total: Originations Number (ths, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Jan1995=100, SA) Source: Mainheim, Moody's Analytics

New Vehicle Sales (Mil. #, SAAR) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody's Analytics

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