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    Webinar-on-Demand

    COVID-19 Economic Forecast Scenarios - The Shape of the Coming Recovery

    In this webinar, Chief Economist Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team present an overview of our updated COVID-19 forecast scenarios for the global economy, including the key drivers for each probability weighted assumption.

    June 2020 WebPage Mark Zandi, Cristian deRitis
    Interview

    China's Economy Under COVID-19

    In this interview, Moody's Analytics Chief Economist APAC Steve Cochrane, talks about our views on the state of China's economy, its relationship with the global recovery, “decoupling” and other risks on the horizon.

    June 2020 WebPage Steven Cochrane, Moody's Analytics
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Global Economic Forecast Update

    With the rapid deterioration in the global economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team present an update to our economic outlook.

    March 2020 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet, Cristian deRitis, Ed Friedman
    Webinar-on-Demand

    COVID-19: Global Recession

    COVID-19 has created a global economic tsunami that is now hitting the United States and Europe with full force.

    March 2020 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet, Cristian deRitis, Steven Cochrane, Adam Kamins, Petr Zemcik
    Article

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    Highly Commended for Best Emerging Markets Paper in the 2019 Savvy Investor Awards, this paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    March 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Jesse Rogers
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Assessing the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Virus Under Alternative Scenarios

    The COVID-19 virus continues to spread and the economic damage is mounting.

    Article

    Coronavirus: COVID-19 Scenario Narratives

    We assess the global macroeconomic impact of two scenarios, although many others, each darker than the next, cannot be ruled out. This assessment is based on simulations of our global macroeconomic model, which captures linkages via international trade, immigration, foreign direct investment, and financial markets for more than 100 countries.

    February 2020 Pdf Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Coronavirus - The Global Economic Threat

    The outbreak has already become highly disruptive to China; the U.S. will not be immune.

    Article

    Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat

    The coronavirus is a serious mounting threat to the fragile Chinese and global economies. It is hard to handicap how broadly the virus will ultimately spread and how virulent it will be, but it has already become highly disruptive to China and increasingly to the rest of Asia. The U.S. will not be immune to its ill effects.

    February 2020 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Trade Diversion Since the U.S.-China Trade War

    This paper examines the change in U.S. imports from China and the rest of the world in the wake of the trade war and attempts to quantify the extent of trade diversion that has taken place because of higher U.S. tariffs on China since 2018.

    January 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    More Questions Than Answers on Trade Agreement

    The impending Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China has delivered more questions than answers. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative posted a two-page fact sheet on December 13 detailing the pending agreement in general terms but provided few details.

    January 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Foreign Direct Investments in Asia: Trends and Prospects

    Asia as a region has attracted the largest share of global FDI flows since 2017 and despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the region is well positioned to continue being the top destination for foreign investments in the years ahead.

    December 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Vietnam Economic Outlook: Tiptoeing Toward the Winner's Circle

    Despite risks to the downside, the country will remain one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

    September 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Steven Shields
    Article

    Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done

    Based on simulations of the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, this paper examines the consequences for the U.S. and global economies in different scenarios regarding how the trade war between the U.S. and China will unfold.

    September 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi, Jesse Rogers
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Next Recession - APAC Edition

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    June 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

    Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

    June 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Veasna Kong, Brendan Meighan
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

    President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

    May 2019 WebPage Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

    New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

    May 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    A Damaging State of Flux

    The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.

    Article

    China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

    Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

    April 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

    Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

    April 2019 Pdf Faraz Syed
    Article

    Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

    Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana
    Article

    Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

    Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

    The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

    We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

    February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Some Rising Pressure Points in Global Debt

    Global leverage has been rising as a share of GDP over the past decade. This is a growing concern, as questions around sustainability loom large in some pockets. Also, although global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, debt servicing costs will continue rising over the next year after an extended period of low borrowing costs, putting pressure on balance sheets.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
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