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    Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done

    Based on simulations of the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, this paper examines the consequences for the U.S. and global economies in different scenarios regarding how the trade war between the U.S. and China will unfold.

    September 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi, Jesse Rogers
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Next Recession

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane, Ryan Sweet
    Article

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Jesse Rogers
    Article

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    June 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

    Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

    June 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Veasna Kong, Brendan Meighan
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

    President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

    May 2019 WebPage Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

    New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

    May 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    A Damaging State of Flux

    The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.

    Article

    China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

    Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

    April 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

    Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

    April 2019 Pdf Faraz Syed
    Article

    Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

    Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana
    Article

    Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

    Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

    The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

    We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

    February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

    Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

    February 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Some Rising Pressure Points in Global Debt

    Global leverage has been rising as a share of GDP over the past decade. This is a growing concern, as questions around sustainability loom large in some pockets. Also, although global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, debt servicing costs will continue rising over the next year after an extended period of low borrowing costs, putting pressure on balance sheets.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    China's Provincial Economies: Growing Together or Pulling Apart?

    In this paper, we examine regional patterns of economic growth across China's 31 province-level administrative divisions, comparing changes in industrial structure, productivity growth and demographics.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Japan Outlook: Brave Face Fronting Oncoming Challenges

    Moody's Analytics outlook for Japan suggests GDP will grow near its potential pace, which hovers from 0.5% to 1%.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Vietnam Outlook: Resiliency Amid Emerging Market Uncertainty

    Vietnam's expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across Southeast Asia's emerging markets Moody's Analytics estimates output growth at 6.7% in 2018.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    At a Crossroads: China Taps the Accelerator

    With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.

    December 2018 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Asia Economic Outlook

    An in depth view of our assumptions for the economy based on forecasts of key economic drivers and our experienced team of economists.

    November 2018 WebPage Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Pride and Protectionism: U.S. Trade Policy and Its Impact on Asia

    Crafting economically sound trade policy is easier said than done.

    Interview

    Trade War Impact On US Could Be Greater Than On China

    Steve Cochrane, Chief APAC Economist of Moody's Analytics, talks about the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

    October 2018 WebPage Steven Cochrane
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Webinar: Australia's Economic Outlook Amidst the Housing Slowdown

    In this webinar, Moody's Analytics economists discuss Australia's macro and regional economic outlook and the impact on the housing market.

    October 2018 WebPage Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Trump Trade War

    Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the economic fallout of an escalating Trump trade war.

    July 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

    In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

    June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins
    Article

    Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative

    Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative

    April 2018 Pdf Steven Cochrane
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