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    Vietnam Economic Outlook: Tiptoeing Toward the Winner's Circle

    Despite risks to the downside, the country will remain one of the world's fastest-growing economies.

    September 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Steven Shields

    Webinar: The Next Recession - APAC Edition

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

    The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

    Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

    June 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Veasna Kong, Brendan Meighan

    Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

    President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

    May 2019 WebPage Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane

    A Damaging State of Flux

    The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.


    Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

    Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana

    Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

    Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

    Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

    The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

    March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

    We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

    February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

    Some Rising Pressure Points in Global Debt

    Global leverage has been rising as a share of GDP over the past decade. This is a growing concern, as questions around sustainability loom large in some pockets. Also, although global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, debt servicing costs will continue rising over the next year after an extended period of low borrowing costs, putting pressure on balance sheets.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

    China's Provincial Economies: Growing Together or Pulling Apart?

    In this paper, we examine regional patterns of economic growth across China's 31 province-level administrative divisions, comparing changes in industrial structure, productivity growth and demographics.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    Japan Outlook: Brave Face Fronting Oncoming Challenges

    Moody's Analytics outlook for Japan suggests GDP will grow near its potential pace, which hovers from 0.5% to 1%.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed

    Vietnam Outlook: Resiliency Amid Emerging Market Uncertainty

    Vietnam's expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across Southeast Asia's emerging markets Moody's Analytics estimates output growth at 6.7% in 2018.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    At a Crossroads: China Taps the Accelerator

    With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.

    December 2018 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

    Asia Economic Outlook

    An in depth view of our assumptions for the economy based on forecasts of key economic drivers and our experienced team of economists.

    November 2018 WebPage Steven Cochrane
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