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A Damaging State of Flux

The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.


China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

April 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics

Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

April 2019 Pdf Faraz Syed

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana

Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

February 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi

Some Rising Pressure Points in Global Debt

Global leverage has been rising as a share of GDP over the past decade. This is a growing concern, as questions around sustainability loom large in some pockets. Also, although global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, debt servicing costs will continue rising over the next year after an extended period of low borrowing costs, putting pressure on balance sheets.

January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

China's Provincial Economies: Growing Together or Pulling Apart?

In this paper, we examine regional patterns of economic growth across China's 31 province-level administrative divisions, comparing changes in industrial structure, productivity growth and demographics.

January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

Japan Outlook: Brave Face Fronting Oncoming Challenges

Moody's Analytics outlook for Japan suggests GDP will grow near its potential pace, which hovers from 0.5% to 1%.

January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed

Vietnam Outlook: Resiliency Amid Emerging Market Uncertainty

Vietnam's expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across Southeast Asia's emerging markets Moody's Analytics estimates output growth at 6.7% in 2018.

January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

At a Crossroads: China Taps the Accelerator

With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.

December 2018 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Asia Economic Outlook

An in depth view of our assumptions for the economy based on forecasts of key economic drivers and our experienced team of economists.

November 2018 WebPage Steven Cochrane

Pride and Protectionism: U.S. Trade Policy and Its Impact on Asia

Crafting economically sound trade policy is easier said than done.


Trade War Impact On US Could Be Greater Than On China

Steve Cochrane, Chief APAC Economist of Moody's Analytics, talks about the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.

October 2018 WebPage Steven Cochrane

Webinar: Australia's Economic Outlook Amidst the Housing Slowdown

In this webinar, Moody's Analytics economists discuss Australia's macro and regional economic outlook and the impact on the housing market.

October 2018 WebPage Moody's Analytics

Trump Trade War

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the economic fallout of an escalating Trump trade war.

July 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi

Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more:

June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins

Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative

Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative

April 2018 Pdf Steven Cochrane

IFRS 9 Scenario Implementation and ECL Calculation for Retail Portfolios

Join Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi and Alaistair Chan as they discuss methods for incorporating forward-looking macroeconomic information to meet IFRS 9 impairment calculation requirements. Our economists will address the probability-weighted aspects of IFRS 9 using Moody's Analytics economic scenarios.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Alaistair Chan
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