Trade War Scenarios

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Based on our Global Macroeconomic Model, the three Trade War scenarios are available for Global, US and US state forecasts:

  • Expected Tariff scenario: Most likely outcome under announced tariffs with retaliation.
  • Threatened Tariff scenario: Announced and threatened tariffs with retaliation.
  • Trade Conflagration scenario: Across-the-board tariffs and broader retaliation.

We provide several flexible delivery options, including an automated data feed and a platform for custom scenario analysis.

Moody's Analytics scenarios are the foundation of risk management, compliance and strategic planning needs. Clients from a broad range of industries can use our scenarios to test the impact of shocks and differing economic assumptions on their businesses and portfolios. Scenarios are produced and maintained by a team of more than 80 experienced economists.