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Moody's Analytics Insights

Article
Graphic of financial indicators

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019
Steven CochraneKatrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana

Article
Graphic of successful business charts

Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

March 2019

Article
Risk Adjustment

Aggregation and diversification of the IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment

IFRS 17 introduces the concept of a risk adjustment for non-financial risk. The IFRS 17 risk adjustment is an influential factor in how profit from insurance contracts is reported and emerges over time.

March 2019
Cassandra Hannibal

Article
Image of numerals on rotating stamp

ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

February 2019

Webinar-on-Demand
Abstract interior architecture design reflecting sunlight.

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Topics@CreditEdge Navigating Choppy Markets - Focus on Asia

Since the Asia crisis, most countries in Asia have displayed a longer term secular trend of falling default risk.

February 2019
Dr. Samuel W. Malone, Yukyung Choi

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

February 2019

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Some Rising Pressure Points in Global Debt

Global leverage has been rising as a share of GDP over the past decade. This is a growing concern, as questions around sustainability loom large in some pockets. Also, although global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, debt servicing costs will continue rising over the next year after an extended period of low borrowing costs, putting pressure on balance sheets.

January 2019

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illuminated charts and graphs

China's Provincial Economies: Growing Together or Pulling Apart?

In this paper, we examine regional patterns of economic growth across China's 31 province-level administrative divisions, comparing changes in industrial structure, productivity growth and demographics.

January 2019

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illuminated charts and graphs

Japan Outlook: Brave Face Fronting Oncoming Challenges

Moody's Analytics outlook for Japan suggests GDP will grow near its potential pace, which hovers from 0.5% to 1%.

January 2019
Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Vietnam Outlook: Resiliency Amid Emerging Market Uncertainty

Vietnam's expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across Southeast Asia's emerging markets Moody's Analytics estimates output growth at 6.7% in 2018.

January 2019

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illuminated charts and graphs

At a Crossroads: China Taps the Accelerator

With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.

December 2018