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    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019
    Article
    Stock market bond figures on board

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019
    Article
    Climate Change

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    June 2019
    Article
    illuminated stock market numbers

    The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

    Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

    June 2019
    Whitepaper
    Actuarial Models in IFRS 17 World

    Final Basel III Reforms: How Can Banks Prepare for the 'Basel IV' Changes?

    In finalizing its Basel III supervisory framework, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is implementing new rules for measuring credit, operational, and market risk.

    June 2019
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

    President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

    May 2019
    Article

    Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

    New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

    May 2019
    Article

    A Damaging State of Flux

    The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.

    May 2019
    Article

    China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

    Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

    April 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

    Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

    April 2019