Moody's Analytics Insights

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The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

June 2019
Steven Cochrane, Veasna Kong, Brendan Meighan

Webinar-on-Demand

Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

May 2019

Article

Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

May 2019

Article

A Damaging State of Flux

The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.

May 2019

Article

China Economic Outlook: Defying Gravity

Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.

April 2019
Moody's Analytics

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Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

April 2019
Faraz Syed

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Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019
Steven CochraneKatrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana

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Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019

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illuminated charts and graphs

Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

March 2019

Article
Risk Adjustment

Aggregation and diversification of the IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment

IFRS 17 introduces the concept of a risk adjustment for non-financial risk. The IFRS 17 risk adjustment is an influential factor in how profit from insurance contracts is reported and emerges over time.

March 2019
Cassandra Hannibal

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ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

February 2019

Webinar-on-Demand
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Moody's Analytics Webinar: Topics@CreditEdge Navigating Choppy Markets - Focus on Asia

Since the Asia crisis, most countries in Asia have displayed a longer term secular trend of falling default risk.

February 2019