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Beyond Theory: A Practical Guide to Using Economic Forecasts for CECL Estimates

In this paper, we discuss some of the options that institutions have for incorporating economic forecasts into their expected loan loss reserve calculations. We discuss the benefits and costs of each approach and provide practical recommendations based on institution size and complexity.

Webinar-on-Demand

CreditForecast.com: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Moody's Analytics subject matter experts Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax and forecasts from Moody's Analytics.

August 2018 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Presentation

CreditForecast.com: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Moody's Analytics subject matter experts Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax and forecasts from Moody's Analytics.

August 2018 Pdf Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Webinar-on-Demand

CECL Disclosures – Required and Beyond

Our experts, Masha Muzyka and Jin Oh, cover transition disclosures focus areas, potential implication of the methodology chosen to the expected disclosures and ECL disclosure best practices emerging to date.

July 2018 WebPage Masha Muzyka, Jin Oh
Presentation

Incorporating Economic Forecasts into CECL

CECL will require institutions to incorporate macroeconomic forecasts formally into their loss allowance estimates for the first time. There are a number of ways in which this can be achieved as the CECL guidelines don't specify any one particular approach. In this presentation, we discuss some of the options that institutions have for incorporating economic forecasts into their expected loan loss reserve calculations. We discuss the benefits and costs of each approach and provide practical recommendations based on institution size and complexity. We also show a simple solution for calculating the lifetime expected losses for consumer loans for different products.

July 2018 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury

Trade War Scenarios

Fill out this form to request more information on our Trade War Scenarios. Moody's Analytics scenarios are the foundation of risk management, compliance and strategic planning needs

July 17, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins
Webinar-on-Demand

CECL: The "Easiest" Implementation

Our subject matter experts, Robby Holditch, Director, and Jin Oh, Director, discuss critical steps in meeting the new CECL standard.

June 2018 WebPage Robby Holditch
Presentation

The “Easiest” Implementation – Why There Is No Easy Button

The “Easiest” Implementation – Why There Is No Easy Button

June 2018 Pdf Robby Holditch
Article

Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Better Long-Term Perspective

Canada's housing market has moved past its previous turning point and seems to have settled into an interlude of slowing house price appreciation, reduced sales, and a looser market in general.

June 2018 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Article

The Venezuela Crisis and Consequences for South America

This paper assesses the economic consequences for Venezuela and the rest of South America if Maduro serves out his new presidential term, and if he is cast from office.

June 2018 Pdf Marisa DiNatale
Presentation

Dr. Kohl: Ag Trends and Borrower Behaviors

Dr. Kohl: Ag Trends and Borrower Behaviors

June 2018 Pdf Doug Johnson, David Kohl
Webinar-on-Demand

Dr. Kohl: Ag Trends and Borrower Behaviors

Moody's Analytics hosted special guest presenter and agricultural economic expert, Dr. David Kohl, for a special session on the outlook of ag lending in 2018.

June 2018 WebPage Doug Johnson, David Kohl
Presentation

Be Reasonable: Creating Supportable Forecast Scenarios for CECL

This presentation discusses the CECL requirement of reasonable and supportable forecasts. We discuss what makes an economic scenario reasonable and supportable and discusses structural forecast model methodology. We also compare customized, standard and off-the-shelf scenarios and examine forecasting credit losses.

June 2018 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis
Webinar-on-Demand

Ag Lending – Experience of Living Through the Cycles

Moody's Analytics hosted special guest panelists Sam Miller from BMO Harris and Steve Ausdemore from Citizens State Bank for a discussion on what you can expect and prepare for in upcoming economic cycles.

April 2018 WebPage Doug Johnson
Presentation

Ag Lending – Experience of Living Through the Cycles

Doug Johnson fro Moody's Analytics hosted special guest panelists Sam Miller from BMO Harris and Steve Ausdemore from Citizens State Bank for a discussion on what you can expect and prepare for in upcoming economic cycles.

April 2018 Pdf Doug Johnson
Webinar-on-Demand

Auto Finance Insights: How Vehicle Information Informs Credit Risk Measures

Tony Hughes and Michael Vogan share valuable insights for managing your auto lending business more effectively.

April 2018 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan
Whitepaper

Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative

Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative

April 2018 Pdf Steven Cochrane
Webinar-on-Demand

President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale

Market Share-Based Credit Analysis

A counterpoint to traditional credit performance analyses.

March 28, 2018 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes

Weighing the Wealth Effect

In this paper, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

March 28, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi

Weighing the Wealth Effect

The importance of the wealth effect has significant implications for the economic expansion. In this paper, we quantify the wealth effect based on unique retail sales data and data on household stock and financial asset holdings. We examine differences in the wealth effect across retail spending categories, the lags in the wealth effect, and possible asymmetries in the wealth effect due to rising versus falling asset prices.

March 21, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

CreditForecast.com: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook Webinar

Join Moody's Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax

February 2018 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Webinar-on-Demand

2018 Ag Markets and the Potential Impact to Your Portfolio

What can Ag lenders do to prepare for this renewal season and provide borrowers with more “value-added” insights?

February 2018 WebPage Doug Johnson, Mike Pearson

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the EBA Scenarios

The European Banking Authority has released its scenarios for the 2018 EU-wide stress test. Join our experts as they analyze the EBA's scenario assumptions, narratives driving them and compare them to other regulatory stress tests.

February 14, 2018 WebPage Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Petr Zemcik
Webinar-on-Demand

Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed's scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed's scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 01, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ed Friedman, Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Webinar-on-Demand

CECL's Forward-Looking Requirements

In this webinar, we examine how CECL's forward-looking requirements can significantly change your loss reserves and future financial statements.

January 2018 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

Dynamic Model-Building: A Proposed Variable Selection Algorithm

In this article, we propose an innovative algorithm that is well suited to building dynamic models for credit and market risk metrics, consistent with regulatory requirements around stress testing, forecasting, and IFRS 9.

Webinar-on-Demand

2018 U.S. Economic Outlook

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody's Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy's performance.

January 2018 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
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