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Weekly Market Outlook: Low Utilization Rate Favors Profits Growth and Fewer Defaults

Markets are now torn between upbeat outlooks for corporate earnings and the risks posed to these outlooks by a very low jobless rate. A recent consensus forecast has S&P 500 operating income growing by 22% in 2018 and by 11% in 2019. Moreover, the Blue Chip consensus believes that the pretax operating profits of all U.S. corporations will increase by 5.2% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2019. In addition, an expected drop by the U.S.' high-yield default rate from April 2018's 3.7% to 1.5% by April 2019 complements the positive outlook for profits. Nevertheless, April's historically low unemployment rate of 3.9% hints of limited upsides for both domestic spending and U.S. output that may thwart expectations of operating earnings growth and fewer defaults.

May 2018 Pdf Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Franklin Kim, John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok

IMF Paper Examines Interconnectedness of Global Financial System

IMF published a working paper that studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks.

May 15, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

BCBS Issues Framework for STC Short-Term Securitizations

BCBS issued the standard for capital treatment of simple, transparent, and comparable (STC) short-term securitizations.

May 14, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

Weekly Market Outlook: Equities Giveth and Taketh Away from Credit Quality

The net equity buybacks of U.S. nonfinancial corporations fell from 2016's $581 billion to 2017's $391 billion possibly in response to the historically rich valuation of U.S. common stock. Indications are that first-quarter 2018's net stock buybacks were up considerably from 2017's final quarter mostly in response to the volatility that followed the setting of the now record high for the market value of U.S. common stock on January 26, 2018.

May 2018 Pdf Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Franklin Kim, John Lonski, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok, Njundu Sanneh

CPMI Publishes Strategy for Reducing Risk of Wholesale Payments

CPMI published a paper on the strategy for reducing the risk of wholesale payments fraud related to endpoint security. The strategy is composed of seven elements that work holistically to address all areas relevant to preventing, detecting, responding to, and communicating about fraud.

May 08, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

FSB Consults on Recommendations for Compensation Data Reporting

FSB launched a consultation on the recommendations for consistent national reporting of data on the use of compensation tools to address misconduct risk.

May 07, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

Weekly Market Outlook: M&A Both Enhances and Diminishes Corporate Credit Quality

Mergers, acquisitions and divestitures (M&A) wield considerable influence over corporate credit quality, where M&A's impact on a single company's credit standing can vary over time. For example, a credit rating may be downgraded early on because of the substantial increase in leverage brought on by a debt-financed acquisition. However, over time, the acquisition may help to boost profitability, liquidity and the company's market value by enough to eventually prompt a credit rating upgrade.

May 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Alaistair Chan

A Composite Capital Measure Unifying Business Decision Rules in the Face of Regulatory Requirements Under New Accounting Standards

Prudent credit risk management ensures institutions maintain sufficient capital and limit the possibility of a capital breach. With CECL and IFRS 9, the resulting trend toward greater credit earnings volatility raises uncertainty in capital supply, ultimately causing an increase in required capital. It is ever more challenging for institutions to manage their top-of-the house capital while steering their business to achieve the desired performance level. This paper introduces an approach that quantifies the additional capital buffer an institution requires, beyond the required regulatory minimum, to limit the likelihood of a capital breach. In addition, we introduce a new measure that allocates capital and recognizes an instrument's regulatory capital requirements, loss allowance, economic concentration risks, and the instrument's contribution to the uncertainty in capital supply and demand. In-line with the Composite Capital Measure introduced in Levy and Xu (2017), this extended measure includes far-reaching implications for business decisions. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate the limitations of alternative measures and how institutions can optimize performance by allocating capital and making business decisions according to the new measure.

May 2018 Pdf Dr. Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Dr. Pierre Xu

LEIROC Publishes Progress Report on GLEIS and Regulatory Uses of LEI

LEIROC published its second progress report on Global Legal Entity Identifier System (GLEIS) and the regulatory uses of Legal Entity Identifier (LEI).

May 02, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

IASB Issued Work Plan and Meeting Updates for April 2018

IASB published an updated work plan, along with the update of its meeting in April 2018.

April 30, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

IMF Paper on Results of Annual Macro-Prudential Survey

IMF published a paper that summarizes the results of its annual survey on the macro-prudential policy in member countries.

April 30, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

Weekly Market Outlook: Loan Default Rate May Approach Bond Default Rate

The high-yield bond market continues to shrug off equity market volatility. Notwithstanding a climb by the VIX index's month-long average from December 2017's 10.3 points to April-to-date's 18.6 points, as well as a rise by the U.S.' high-yield default rate from January 2018's 3.3% to March's 3.9%, April 25's composite high-yield bond spread of 352 basis points was thinner than the 359 bp of year-end 2017. Still, thin spreads reflect strongly held expectations of a renewed slide by the high-yield default rate well into 2019.

April 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell

FSB Issues Second Consultation on UPI Governance Arrangements

FSB published a second consultation on the proposed governance arrangements for the unique product identifier (UPI).

April 26, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

Dietrich Domanski of FSB Offers Updates on Planned Work for 2018

The FSB Secretary General Dietrich Domanski updated the audience on the planned work of FSB for 2018, while speaking at the Eurofi Seminar in Sofia.

April 26, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

FSB Article on Achieving G20 Goal of Resilient Market-Based Finance

FSB published an article by the Secretary General Dietrich Domanski on achieving the G20 goal of resilient market-based finance.

April 25, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

IAIS Publishes Newsletter for April 2018

This issue highlights that IAIS held a public discussion session to provide background information on the resolution of comments received during the public consultation on ComFrame, answer stakeholder questions on the outcome of the consultation, and present the next steps in the development of ComFrame.

April 25, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

William Coen of BCBS Discusses Progress on Market Risk Framework

During the keynote speech at the ISDA Annual General Meeting, William Coen, the Secretary General of BCBS, discussed the market risk framework, which is the one element of the post-crisis reform agenda has yet to be fully finalized.

April 25, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

IOSCO Consults on Good Practices for Supporting Audit Quality

IOSCO published a consultation report on good practices for audit committees in supporting audit quality. The report is intended to assist audit committees of issuers of listed securities in promoting and supporting audit quality.

April 24, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

BCBS Issues Fourteenth Progress Report on Adoption of Basel III

BCBS published the fourteenth progress report on adoption of the Basel III regulatory framework.

April 23, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

FSB Publishes Toolkit to Mitigate Misconduct Risk

FSB published a report that presents a toolkit for firms and supervisors to strengthen the governance frameworks to mitigate misconduct risk.

April 20, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

BCBS Updates FAQ and Workbook on Basel III Monitoring

BCBS updated the list of frequently asked questions (FAQ) and the workbook (version 3.7.5) on Basel III monitoring for the collection of December 2017 data.

April 20, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

Down the Rabbit Hole: NAFTA Scenarios

A centerpiece of presidential candidate Trump's economic agenda was to take a hard line on our trading partners, particularly those with which the U.S. runs a trade deficit. China and Mexico were the object of his strongest recriminations, and he argued that large tariffs should be slapped on their exports to the U.S. Trump also labeled the Trans-Pacific Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement as among as the worst trade deals ever.

April 17, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi

RegTech - Enabler of the shift from compliance to performance

This whitepaper discusses the results of the RegTech survey conduced by and Moody's Analytics.

April 2018 Pdf

FSI Update on Second High-Level Meet of Insurers in Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic's regulatory authority for insurance hosted the Second High-level Meeting in Santo Domingo.

April 16, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

Permitted approaches for constructing IFRS 17 Discount Rates

IFRS 17 introduces a requirement for insurers to use fair value and market-consistent approaches to liability valuations as the basis for reporting their accounts. Insurers face a significant challenge in clearly differentiating between the separate components of their balance sheet, and in doing so without introducing artificial noise or volatility into their reporting.

April 2018 Pdf Nick Jessop

President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale

CPMI-IOSCO Publish Framework for Supervisory Stress Testing of CCPs

CPMI and IOSCO published the framework for supervisory stress testing of central counterparties (CCPs).

April 10, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

IMF Publishes Global Financial Stability Report in April 2018

The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) provides an assessment of the global financial system and markets and addresses the emerging market financing in a global context.

April 10, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

FSI Paper on Identification and Measurement of Non-Performing Assets

FSI of BIS published a paper on the identification and measurement of non-performing assets (NPAs).

April 10, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News

CPMI-IOSCO Guidance on Harmonization of OTC Derivatives Data Elements

CPMI and IOSCO issued technical guidance to authorities on harmonized definitions, formats, and usage of a set of critical data elements for over-the-counter (OTC) derivative transactions reported to trade repositories, excluding the Unique Transaction Identifier (UTI) and the Unique Product Identifier (UPI).

April 09, 2018 WebPage Regulatory News
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