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    Economic Insights

    Economic Insights

    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

    Following the release of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) scenarios for 2020, join Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed's scenarios.

    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    Coronavirus - The Global Economic Threat

    The outbreak has already become highly disruptive to China; the U.S. will not be immune.

    Presentation
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    Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat

    Presentation slides from the webinar. The outbreak has already become highly disruptive to China; the U.S. will not be immune.

    Article
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    Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat

    The coronavirus is a serious mounting threat to the fragile Chinese and global economies. It is hard to handicap how broadly the virus will ultimately spread and how virulent it will be, but it has already become highly disruptive to China and increasingly to the rest of Asia. The U.S. will not be immune to its ill effects.

    Article
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    Trade Diversion Since the U.S.-China Trade War

    This paper examines the change in U.S. imports from China and the rest of the world in the wake of the trade war and attempts to quantify the extent of trade diversion that has taken place because of higher U.S. tariffs on China since 2018.

    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    2020 U.S. Macro Economic Outlook: Two Economies

    The U.S. economy is being buffeted by significant cross-currents.

    Article
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    More Questions Than Answers on Trade Agreement

    The impending Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China has delivered more questions than answers. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative posted a two-page fact sheet on December 13 detailing the pending agreement in general terms but provided few details.

    Article
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    Foreign Direct Investments in Asia: Trends and Prospects

    Asia as a region has attracted the largest share of global FDI flows since 2017 and despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the region is well positioned to continue being the top destination for foreign investments in the years ahead.

    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    U.S. Commercial Properties Price Indices Methodology and Forecast Trends

    Moody's Analytics has added six new U.S. commercial property price indices (CPPI) to its global macroeconomic forecast model based on sales transaction data from REIS.

    Article
    City building looking up at sky

    Electing the Fair Value Option Instead of CECL? Know the Risks

    Some recent public disclosures by institutions indicate that some lenders are evaluating electing fair value accounting, also known as the fair value option, or FVO, in lieu of applying the Current Expected Credit Losses standard.

    Whitepaper
    Graphic of successful business charts

    Adding Value Through Effective Model Validation

    We describe how model validation can be an important value-adding tool rather than a mere regulatory requirement.