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Auto Finance Insights - October 2017

Auto lending growth continues to slow. Despite higher pay and solid returns from equity markets, consumers are finding that new cars are losing luster as objects worth their hard-earned cash. The tightening of lending standards has obvious ramifications for the auto industry as a whole, where expansionary credit cycles typically support new vehicle sales.

October 2017 Pdf Michael Vogan

Economic Scenarios: What's Reasonable and Supportable?

In this paper, we review and make recommendations on the use of economic scenarios in the CECL process along six key dimensions: FASB requirements, Forecast methodology and horizon definition, number of scenarios, mean reversions and custom scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of other considerations banks and lenders should bear in mind when developing a forward-looking process for CECL compliance.

October 2017 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson

Canada Housing Market Outlook: Stepping on the Brake

Canada's housing market is starting to feel the effects of federal and provincial government restrictions, and now the Bank of Canada has also started its long-awaited tightening of interest rates

September 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Harvey

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ed Friedman, Ryan Sweet, Chris Lafakis

Subprime Auto Credit: Navigating Risks on the Horizon

Auto lending is following a natural and expected credit cycle. Subprime performance will get better as credit tightens. Nonbank auto financiers are facing the highest loss rates when lending to low-income, subprime borrowers. Residual value pressures should begin to abate but will likely increase for trucks and SUVs.

August 2017 WebPage Michael Vogan

Global Outlook: Stable Growth as Uncertainty Wanes

A series of favorable electoral outcomes in Europe has reduced political uncertainty, elevating business and consumer confidence. Key support for global growth will come from China and the U.S. Proposed fiscal policy measures by the Trump administration, albeit less expansive than earlier anticipated, are expected to provide a near-term boost in real GDP growth from 1.6% annualized in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017.

August 2017 Pdf Stephen Ciccarella

The Effect of Ride-Sharing on the Auto Industry

Many in the auto industry are concerned about the impact of ride-sharing. In this article analyze the impact of ride-share services like Uber and Lyft on the private transportation market.

July 2017 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes

Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times

In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.

May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi

Canada Housing Outlook: The Tide Starts to Ebb

According to the Brookfield RPS – Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, Canada's housing market has slowed, but is still a long way from a correction.

May 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?

Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation.

February 2017 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan

"How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?" Presentation Slides

Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation. The abundance of vehicles in the US that are older than 10 years will soon need to be replaced, and together with continuing demand from ex-lessees, this demand will ensure that prices remain supported under baseline macroeconomic conditions.

February 2017 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan

Economic Forecasting & Stress Testing Residual Vehicle Values

To effectively manage risk in your auto portfolios, you need to account for future economic conditions. Relying on models that do not fully account for cyclical economic factors and include subjective overlay, may produce inaccurate, inconsistent or biased estimates of residual values.

December 2016 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes

Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi

Post-US Presidential Election Outlook

Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president's term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.

November 2016 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi

Moody's Analytics & Brookfield RPS Canada Housing Market Outlook

According to new forecasts from Moody's Analytics, based on the Brookfield RPS House Price Indices, Canadian house prices will experience slower growth over the next five years, but avoid significant declines at the national level forecasts project that a number of metropolitan areas, most notably Vancouver and Edmonton, will experience some modest price declines in the near-term.

October 2016 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

Brexit - Economic & Financial Aftermath

The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country's place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.

June 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi

AutoCycle™: Residual Risk Management and Lease Pricing at the VIN Level

We demonstrate the core capabilities of our vehicle residual forecasting model to capture aging and usage effects and illustrate the material implications for car valuation of different macroeconomic scenarios such as recessions and oil price spikes.

May 2016 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes

Benefits & Applications: AutoCycle - Vehicle Residual Value Forecasting Solution

With auto leasing close to record highs, the need for accurate and transparent used-car price forecasts is paramount. Concerns about the effect of off-lease volume on prices have recently peaked, and those exposed to risks associated with vehicle valuations are seeking new forms of intelligence. With these forces in mind, Moody's Analytics AutoCycle™ has been developed to address these evolving market dynamics.

May 2016 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes, Dr. Samuel W. Malone, Michael Vogan, Michael Brisson

Alternatives to Long-Term Car Loans?

In this article, our experts focus on two recent developments: how to manage lease-term or model-year concentration risk and how to find affordable finance options for subprime or near-prime sector.

February 2016 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes

Forecasting Income Statements & Balance Sheets Using Industry Data

In this webinar, Dr. Brian Poi, Director, Economic Research, demonstrates how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark for internally generated forecasts.

October 2015 Pdf Brian Poi

Stress Testing Used-Car Prices

In this presentation we presented a quantitative methodology for incorporating economic factors into car price forecasts.

August 2015 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan

Systemic Risk Monitor 1.0: A Network Approach

In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.

Multi-Period Stochastic Scenario Generation

This article describes how to build consistent projections for standard credit risk metrics and mark-to-market parameters simultaneously within a single, unified environment: stochastic dynamic macro models.

June 2015 Pdf Dr. Gustavo Ordóñez-Sanz

Handling low default portfolios under stress

Regulators are challenging how to perform stress testing on low default portfolios by reviewing bank's PD models for RWA stress testing, in the absence of data they need to be convinced of the methodology used. In this Moody's Analytics webinar we put forward a statistical approach to stress testing low default portfolios with practical case studies

February 2014 Pdf Manuele Iorio, Dr. Juan M. Licari

Forecasts with Alternative Scenarios: Evaluate the impact of shocks, expose vulnerabilities and develop strategic business plans while enhancing your regulatory compliance

Moody's Analytics' presentation on alternative scenarios highlights key points to evaluate the impact of shocks, expose vulnerabilities and develop strategic business plans while enhancing regulatory compliance. By analyzing the common business challenges in the industry, Moody's Analytics provides a recommendation on how to make informed decisions that minimize risks & maximize opportunities resulting from economic changes(both good and bad).

June 2011 Pdf Celine Cheng
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