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    Economic Insights

    Economic Insights

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Evaluating Senator Warren's Social Security Reform Plan

    This brief paper outlines Senator Warren's reform plan and evaluates its actuarial, macroeconomic and distributional impacts.

    September 2019
    Article
    Graphic of financial indicators

    Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done

    Based on simulations of the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, this paper examines the consequences for the U.S. and global economies in different scenarios regarding how the trade war between the U.S. and China will unfold.

    September 2019
    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    The Next Recession

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    A Comparative Analysis of Household Credit Data From the New York Fed and Moody's Analytics

    The importance of accurate and timely data on household credit conditions became clear during the global financial crisis. Quickly rising delinquencies and foreclosures should have been a warning to lenders and regulators to significantly tighten the spigot on new lending that was wide open during the pre-crisis boom. However, partially due to data limitations, many financial institutions were surprised by the weakening of household balance sheets. By the time they realized the severity of the problem, it was too late to act.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019
    Presentation
    illuminated charts and graphs

    CECL Methodologies: Loss Rate Model and Cohort Analysis

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019
    Presentation
    illuminated charts and graphs

    CECL: Determining Correct Segments for Loss Pooling

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019
    Presentation
    illuminated charts and graphs

    CECL Methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow Approach

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Household Credit Conditions Never Better

    More than a decade after the financial crisis that was caused in significant part by debt-burdened households, there is no indication that household debt will be at the center of the next economic recession.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Economic Implications of Climate Change

    The effects of climate change will intensify throughout the century, resulting in profound changes in climate patterns across the globe.

    August 2019