Auto lending growth continues to slow. Despite higher pay and solid returns from equity markets, consumers are finding that new cars are losing luster as objects worth their hard-earned cash. The tightening of lending standards has obvious ramifications for the auto industry as a whole, where expansionary credit cycles typically support new vehicle sales.
In this paper, we review and make recommendations on the use of economic scenarios in the CECL process along six key dimensions: FASB requirements, Forecast methodology and horizon definition, number of scenarios, mean reversions and custom scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of other considerations banks and lenders should bear in mind when developing a forward-looking process for CECL compliance.
In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.
Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson
Canada's housing market is starting to feel the effects of federal and provincial government restrictions, and now the Bank of Canada has also started its long-awaited tightening of interest rates
In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles.
Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ed Friedman, Ryan Sweet, Chris Lafakis
Auto lending is following a natural and expected credit cycle. Subprime performance will get better as credit tightens. Nonbank auto financiers are facing the highest loss rates when lending to low-income, subprime borrowers. Residual value pressures should begin to abate but will likely increase for trucks and SUVs.
A series of favorable electoral outcomes in Europe has reduced political uncertainty, elevating business and consumer confidence. Key support for global growth will come from China and the U.S. Proposed fiscal policy measures by the Trump administration, albeit less expansive than earlier anticipated, are expected to provide a near-term boost in real GDP growth from 1.6% annualized in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017.
Many in the auto industry are concerned about the impact of ride-sharing. In this article analyze the impact of ride-share services like Uber and Lyft on the private transportation market.
In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.
According to the Brookfield RPS – Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, Canada's housing market has slowed, but is still a long way from a correction.
Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation.
Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation. The abundance of vehicles in the US that are older than 10 years will soon need to be replaced, and together with continuing demand from ex-lessees, this demand will ensure that prices remain supported under baseline macroeconomic conditions.
To effectively manage risk in your auto portfolios, you need to account for future economic conditions. Relying on models that do not fully account for cyclical economic factors and include subjective overlay, may produce inaccurate, inconsistent or biased estimates of residual values.
Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.
Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president's term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.
According to new forecasts from Moody's Analytics, based on the Brookfield RPS House Price Indices, Canadian house prices will experience slower growth over the next five years, but avoid significant declines at the national level forecasts project that a number of metropolitan areas, most notably Vancouver and Edmonton, will experience some modest price declines in the near-term.
The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country's place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.
We demonstrate the core capabilities of our vehicle residual forecasting model to capture aging and usage effects and illustrate the material implications for car valuation of different macroeconomic scenarios such as recessions and oil price spikes.
With auto leasing close to record highs, the need for accurate and transparent used-car price forecasts is paramount. Concerns about the effect of off-lease volume on prices have recently peaked, and those exposed to risks associated with vehicle valuations are seeking new forms of intelligence. With these forces in mind, Moody's Analytics AutoCycle™ has been developed to address these evolving market dynamics.
In this article, our experts focus on two recent developments: how to manage lease-term or model-year concentration risk and how to find affordable finance options for subprime or near-prime sector.
In this webinar, Dr. Brian Poi, Director, Economic Research, demonstrates how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark for internally generated forecasts.
In this presentation we presented a quantitative methodology for incorporating economic factors into car price forecasts.
In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.
This article describes how to build consistent projections for standard credit risk metrics and mark-to-market parameters simultaneously within a single, unified environment: stochastic dynamic macro models.
Dr. Gustavo Ordóñez-Sanz
Regulators are challenging how to perform stress testing on low default portfolios by reviewing bank's PD models for RWA stress testing, in the absence of data they need to be convinced of the methodology used. In this Moody's Analytics webinar we put forward a statistical approach to stress testing low default portfolios with practical case studies
Moody's Analytics' presentation on alternative scenarios highlights key points to evaluate the impact of shocks, expose vulnerabilities and develop strategic business plans while enhancing regulatory compliance. By analyzing the common business challenges in the industry, Moody's Analytics provides a recommendation on how to make informed decisions that minimize risks & maximize opportunities resulting from economic changes(both good and bad).