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Webinar-on-Demand

Briefing on the EBA Scenarios

The European Banking Authority has released its scenarios for the 2018 EU-wide stress test.

February 2018 WebPage
Webinar-on-Demand

Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed's scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Japan Macroeconomic Outlook

After a strong 2017, the country's economy is expected to maintain momentum.

February 2018 Pdf Faraz Syed
Webinar-on-Demand

CECL's Forward-Looking Requirements

In this webinar, we examine how CECL's forward-looking requirements can significantly change your loss reserves and future financial statements.

January 2018 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis
Webinar-on-Demand

2018 U.S. Economic Outlook

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody's Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy's performance.

January 2018 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Housing Takes a Hit

In this webinar, we consider the prospects for the housing market in 2018 in light of the recent changes to the tax code.

January 2018 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

The Credit Impact of Hurricanes

Moody's Analytics Senior Director Cristian deRitis and Equifax Chief Economist Amy Crews Cutts discuss the potential impact of the hurricanes on consumer credit.

December 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis
Webinar-on-Demand

Weighing the Wealth Effect

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

December 2017 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Brian Poi, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Consequences of Republican Tax Legislation

In this webinar, we assess the implications of the imminent change, with a focus on who benefits most and who is likely to be hurt. The discussion entails a look at both the national effects and the regional implications.

December 2017 WebPage Chris Lafakis, Adam Kamins, Dan White, Mark Zandi
Article

Wholesale Used-Car Price Report December 2017

Wholesale used-vehicle auction sales waned in November, while the average transaction price fell by 0.53% from a year ago to $10,556. The surge in replacement demand after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma appears to be fading, resulting in prices and sales normalizing from the strong performance in October and September.

December 2017 Pdf Michael Vogan, Roland Lindmayer
Presentation

Electric Vehicle Residual Value Outlook

Moody's Analytics Lead Auto Economist Michael Vogan examine what factors—both macroeconomic and technological—are causing residuals in the electric vehicle market to under perform.

December 2017 Pdf Michael Vogan
Presentation

Producing Objective Income & Balance Sheet Forecasts Presentation Slides

In this presentation, we demonstrate how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark of a bank's performance under baseline and stressed scenarios. We demonstrate results though case study of regional banks, peer groups, and larger CCAR-sized institutions.

November 2017 Pdf Brian Poi
Presentation

Economic Scenarios: A Glimpse Into the Future

Under CECL and IFRS 9, forecasting expected credit losses will be paramount. Join Moody's Analytics experts as they discuss our macro and regional forecasting. Learn how our full suite of scenario capabilities for CECL, IFRS 9, BAU, and stress testing can help your firm meet this essential requirement.

November 2017 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis
Webinar-on-Demand

Producing Objective Income & Balance Sheet Forecasts

In this webinar, we demonstrate how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark of a bank's performance under baseline and stressed scenarios. We demonstrate results though case study of regional banks, peer groups, and larger CCAR-sized institutions.

November 2017 WebPage Brian Poi
Article

Auto Finance Insights - October 2017

Auto lending growth continues to slow. Despite higher pay and solid returns from equity markets, consumers are finding that new cars are losing luster as objects worth their hard-earned cash. The tightening of lending standards has obvious ramifications for the auto industry as a whole, where expansionary credit cycles typically support new vehicle sales.

October 2017 Pdf Michael Vogan
Whitepaper

Economic Scenarios: What's Reasonable and Supportable?

In this paper, we review and make recommendations on the use of economic scenarios in the CECL process along six key dimensions: FASB requirements, Forecast methodology and horizon definition, number of scenarios, mean reversions and custom scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of other considerations banks and lenders should bear in mind when developing a forward-looking process for CECL compliance.

October 2017 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson
Article

Canada Housing Market Outlook: Stepping on the Brake

Canada's housing market is starting to feel the effects of federal and provincial government restrictions, and now the Bank of Canada has also started its long-awaited tightening of interest rates

September 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Harvey

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ed Friedman, Ryan Sweet, Chris Lafakis
Webinar-on-Demand

Subprime Auto Credit: Navigating Risks on the Horizon

Auto lending is following a natural and expected credit cycle. Subprime performance will get better as credit tightens. Nonbank auto financiers are facing the highest loss rates when lending to low-income, subprime borrowers. Residual value pressures should begin to abate but will likely increase for trucks and SUVs.

August 2017 WebPage Michael Vogan
Presentation

Subprime Auto Credit: Navigating Risks on the Horizon Presentation Slides

In this presentation; Auto lending is following a natural and expected credit cycle. Subprime performance will get better as credit tightens. Nonbank auto financiers are facing the highest loss rates when lending to low-income, subprime borrowers. Residual value pressures should begin to abate but will likely increase for trucks and SUVs.

August 2017 Pdf Michael Vogan
Article

Global Outlook: Stable Growth as Uncertainty Wanes

A series of favorable electoral outcomes in Europe has reduced political uncertainty, elevating business and consumer confidence. Key support for global growth will come from China and the U.S. Proposed fiscal policy measures by the Trump administration, albeit less expansive than earlier anticipated, are expected to provide a near-term boost in real GDP growth from 1.6% annualized in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017.

August 2017 Pdf Stephen Ciccarella
Article

The Effect of Ride-Sharing on the Auto Industry

Many in the auto industry are concerned about the impact of ride-sharing. In this article analyze the impact of ride-share services like Uber and Lyft on the private transportation market.

July 2017 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
Presentation

Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times

In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.

May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Canada Housing Outlook: The Tide Starts to Ebb

According to the Brookfield RPS – Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, Canada's housing market has slowed, but is still a long way from a correction.

May 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Presentation

Potential Bumps Ahead for US Financial Markets

How US policymakers respond to pressing fiscal challenges could have major implications for financial market conditions. These challenges, coupled with the debate surrounding the Fed's balance sheet and geopolitical issues, are of concern for those with exposure to market risk.

Presentation

"How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?" Presentation Slides

Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation. The abundance of vehicles in the US that are older than 10 years will soon need to be replaced, and together with continuing demand from ex-lessees, this demand will ensure that prices remain supported under baseline macroeconomic conditions.

February 2017 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan
Webinar-on-Demand

How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?

Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation.

February 2017 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Forecasting & Stress Testing Residual Vehicle Values

To effectively manage risk in your auto portfolios, you need to account for future economic conditions. Relying on models that do not fully account for cyclical economic factors and include subjective overlay, may produce inaccurate, inconsistent or biased estimates of residual values.

December 2016 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
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