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    How Corporate Credit Might Burst an Equity Bubble

    Highly leveraged corporate balance sheets have often been cited as one of the greater threats to both the most richly valued U.S. equity market since 2000 and a record-long business cycle upturn.

    Article
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Positive Earnings Outlook Requires Flat to Lower Interest Rates

    After shrinking by 0.6% year over year during January-September 2019, yearlong 2019's core after-tax profits may be unchanged annually, at best.

    Article
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    Cards and CECL estimates

    Recent CECL impact disclosures point directly to credit cards as the largest driver of the allowance. We can confirm those recent disclosures by looking at the consumer default volumes chart in Figure 1,which clearly point to the credit card segment as being one of the largest contributors of loss today.

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    PCD assets post-CECL: The real-world implications of an accounting change

    One benefit CECL will bring to the accounting space is moving away from the complicated and burdensome accounting for Purchase Credit Impaired (PCI) assets.

    Article
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Overvalued Equities Increase Corporate Credit's Downside Risk

    An overvalued equity market increases the risk of a deep sell-off of equities that will damage corporate credit.

    Article
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    Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Rating Changes Say High-Yield Bond Spread Is Too Thin

    High-yield bonds have rallied mightily despite the lack of any observable broad-based acceleration of either business sales or corporate earnings

    Article
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Richly Valued Equities Offset Record High Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

    Following Jerome Powell's testimony of December 11, Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield fell to 3.98%, which was its lowest close since the 3.95% of August 28, 2019.

    Article
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Return of Christmas Past Does Not Impend

    More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.

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    Digitisation and Automation in Commercial Lending: Disruption without Distraction

    Automation and data-driven analytics have become part of our daily lives. Banking is no different. For example, a credit card application can be approved within minutes, and even a mortgage application can be pre-approved within a few days.

    Article
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Next Plunge by Profits to Drive Leverage Up to 2009 High

    U.S. business activity has not been exceeding its reach, and that will help extend the long-lived bull market and record-long economic recovery.

    Presentation

    Leveraging Artificial Intelligence & Big Data to Maximize Your Early Warning Practices

    New approaches to augment your early warning practice, including: how leading institutions utilize data to monitor and benchmark their portfolio risk, the benefits of incorporating Credit Sentiment Scores into your risk management toolkit; when should you start to worry?

    Presentation

    Tech Disruption in CRE & The Evolution of Hyperlocal Analysis

    How is technology disrupting CRE, and how hyperlocal analysis is evolving to augment traditional analysis of risk and opportunities. The session will cover real-world case studies and how clients have been responding to disruptive trends and using hyperlocal data to address challenges.