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Business Insights

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Will Cut Rates If 10-Year Yield Breaks Under 2.4%

The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection.

March 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
Image of city buildings and sky

Weekly Market Outlook: Riskier Outlook May Slow Corporate Debt Growth in 2019

The latest version of the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States” was released on March 7. As of 2018's final quarter, the total outstandings of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt grew by 5.1% year-to-year to a record high $51.796 trillion.

March 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Replay of Late 1998's Drop by Interest Rates May Materialize

Weakness abroad and a faltering demand for U.S. output now put downward pressure on both earnings-sensitive securities' prices and benchmark Treasury yields. The equity and high-yield credit rallies will be put on hold until the earnings outlook stabilizes.

March 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
Federal building columns

Weekly Market Outlook: Moody's Yield Averages Enter Their 100th Year

Two milestones will be arrived at in 2019. First, but not necessarily the foremost, Moody's corporate bond yield averages will record their 100th anniversary in 2019.

February 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina EllSteven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Might Yet Be Challenged by a Worsened Business Outlook

High-yield bonds have led the credit market in total return thus far in 2019. After soaring from 6.32% at the end of September to 8.06% by year-end 2018, a composite speculative-grade bond yield has dropped to February 20's 6.79%.

February 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Whitepaper

Chartis Research | Moody's Analytics Credit Risk Vendor Analysis Report

Moody's Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools supported by risk expertise, expansive information resources, and the application of new technology. Its solutions, made up of research, data, software and professional services, are assembled with the aim of delivering a seamless customer experience.

February 2019

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Weekly Market Outlook: Default Outlook Again Defies Unmatched Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt rose to a record high 46.0% of GDP as of the span-ended September 2018. Nonfinancial corporate debt's 6.4% year-over-year increase for the 12-months-ended September 2018 outran nominal GDP's comparably measured rise of 5.0%.

February 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
Black and white photo of stock market numbers overlayed on city sky

Weekly Market Outlook: Equity Analysts' Confidence Contrasts With Economists' Skepticism

Notwithstanding January's bigger-than-expected addition to payrolls, the futures market recently assigned a mere 3% probability to a hiking of fed funds at any point in 2019.

February 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina EllSteven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez

Article

Moody's Analytics Wins the Inaugural RiskTech100® IFRS 9 Award

International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 introduced a new accounting standard for financial instruments when it came into effect in January 2018. Taking first place for helping customers solve challenges around IFRS 9 is Moody's Analytics, winner of the inaugural RiskTech100 ® IFRS 9 award.

February 2019

Article
Blurred business people walking in front of bank

Weekly Market Outlook: Fed's Pause May Refresh a Tiring Economic Recovery

As high ranking Federal Reserve officials reiterated many times earlier, monetary policy is not on a preset course.

January 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Rising Default Rate May Be Difficult to Cap

Because of its acute sensitivity to the business-cycle and corporate earnings, the high-yield credit market will have more to worry about this year.

January 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Baa-Grade Credits Dominate U.S. Investment-Grade Rating Revisions

In 2018's final quarter, the 22 downgrades of U.S. investment-grade companies included nine that were at least partly ascribed to mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and three that were linked to equity buybacks. Only half, or 11, of fourth-quarter 2018's U.S. investment-grade downgrades were primarily driven by worsened operating or market fundamentals.

January 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Mark ZandiRyan Sweet, Michael Ferlez