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    Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Rate Cuts May Fall Short of Stabilizing Markets

    Markets are trying to “price-in” an event for which there is no readily known precedent. Volatility will rule until COVID-19-related risks reverse course.

    February 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Michael Ferlez

    Moody's Analytics Wins IFRS 17 Solution of the Year

    Soon after its launch, it proved to be popular amongst a number of insurers on both sides of the Atlantic.

    February 2020 WebPage

    Moody's Analytics Wins Solvency II Solution of the Year

    Solvency II came into life on 1 January 2016, bringing major changes to how insurers in the European Economic Area manage risk and capital, and how they report on their business.

    February 2020 WebPage

    Moody's Analytics Wins ESG Software of the Year

    Economic scenario generators (ESGs) are critical to insurers' risk and capital management processes and demands for greater innovation in these offerings is intensifying.

    February 2020 WebPage

    Moody's Analytics Wins Regulatory Reporting Software of the Year

    In an era where all eyes are on compliance, regulatory reporting remains one of the most demanding areas for insurers.

    February 2020 WebPage

    Moody's Analytics Wins ERM End-to-End Solution of the Year

    End-to-end risk modelling solutions have developed from a need among insurers to have a quick, accurate and reliable understanding of their enterprise risk and solvency positions.

    February 2020 WebPage

    Non-bank Players are Ready for CECL — Are Banks?

    The initial intent of the CECL guidelines was to make loan-loss allowances more reactive to the credit environment. By setting aside greater allowances, organizations would be better prepared for a default.

    February 2020 WebPage Dr. Amnon Levy

    The Changing Climate of Credit Risk Management

    While bankers are increasingly managing risks related to changes in policy and technology (also known as transition risk), physical risks are not necessarily an obvious set of primary factors for banks' commercial credit portfolio managers originating credit with maturities of three to seven years.

    February 2020 WebPage Dr. Amnon Levy, Frank Freitas

    Weekly Market Outlook: Optimism Rules Despite Unfinished Slowing of Core Business Sales

    The market value of U.S. common stock has been setting new record highs with regularity. The market appears to be supremely confident of two things.

    February 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Dealing With Fallen Angel Risk

    Highly Commended for Best Fixed Income Paper in the 2019 Savvy Investor Awards, this paper tests the early warning power of the CreditEdge Deterioration Probability (DP) metric for Fallen Angel downgrades.

    Weekly Market Outlook: Baa-Rated Corporates Fared Better in 2019

    At the end of 1999, the $510 billion of Baa-rated bonds approximated 24% of the $2.098 trillion of outstanding investment-grade bond obligations of U.S. corporations.

    February 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez, Ryan Sweet

    Weekly Market Outlook: Richly Priced Stocks Fall Short of 1999-2000's Gross Overvaluation

    All else the same, the market value of U.S. common equity needs to rise by another 28% before it matches the severity of its gross overvaluation of 1999-2000.

    February 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Coronavirus: The Global Economic Threat

    The coronavirus is a serious mounting threat to the fragile Chinese and global economies. It is hard to handicap how broadly the virus will ultimately spread and how virulent it will be, but it has already become highly disruptive to China and increasingly to the rest of Asia. The U.S. will not be immune to its ill effects.

    February 2020 Pdf Mark Zandi

    Weekly Market Outlook: Coronavirus May Be a Black Swan Like No Other

    A coronavirus pandemic would be even more of a “black swan” than the global financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-2009.

    January 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields, Andrew Pak

    Trade Diversion Since the U.S.-China Trade War

    This paper examines the change in U.S. imports from China and the rest of the world in the wake of the trade war and attempts to quantify the extent of trade diversion that has taken place because of higher U.S. tariffs on China since 2018.

    January 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    How Corporate Credit Might Burst an Equity Bubble

    Highly leveraged corporate balance sheets have often been cited as one of the greater threats to both the most richly valued U.S. equity market since 2000 and a record-long business cycle upturn.

    January 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Moody's Analytics Wins an Artificial Intelligence Award

    The use of analytics to make decisions has grown increasingly sophisticated over the last few years, with the incorporation of machine learning and artificial intelligence playing a major part. Moody's Analytics gives firms the tools they need to make better, faster decisions.

    January 2020 WebPage

    Weekly Market Outlook: Positive Earnings Outlook Requires Flat to Lower Interest Rates

    After shrinking by 0.6% year over year during January-September 2019, yearlong 2019's core after-tax profits may be unchanged annually, at best.

    January 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

    Cards and CECL estimates

    Recent CECL impact disclosures point directly to credit cards as the largest driver of the allowance. We can confirm those recent disclosures by looking at the consumer default volumes chart in Figure 1,which clearly point to the credit card segment as being one of the largest contributors of loss today.

    January 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, David Fieldhouse

    PCD assets post-CECL: The real-world implications of an accounting change

    One benefit CECL will bring to the accounting space is moving away from the complicated and burdensome accounting for Purchase Credit Impaired (PCI) assets.

    January 2020 WebPage Scott Dietz

    More Questions Than Answers on Trade Agreement

    The impending Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China has delivered more questions than answers. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative posted a two-page fact sheet on December 13 detailing the pending agreement in general terms but provided few details.

    January 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    Weekly Market Outlook: Overvalued Equities Increase Corporate Credit's Downside Risk

    An overvalued equity market increases the risk of a deep sell-off of equities that will damage corporate credit.

    January 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Foreign Direct Investments in Asia: Trends and Prospects

    Asia as a region has attracted the largest share of global FDI flows since 2017 and despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the region is well positioned to continue being the top destination for foreign investments in the years ahead.

    December 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Rating Changes Say High-Yield Bond Spread Is Too Thin

    High-yield bonds have rallied mightily despite the lack of any observable broad-based acceleration of either business sales or corporate earnings

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez, Mark Zandi

    Risk Markets Technology Awards 2020: Solvency II Product of the Year

    Moody's Analytics' RiskIntegrity Suite is an end-to-end regulatory risk and solvency solution with out-of-the box Solvency II standard formula and internal model capabilities.

    December 2019 WebPage

    Electing the Fair Value Option Instead of CECL? Know the Risks

    Some recent public disclosures by institutions indicate that some lenders are evaluating electing fair value accounting, also known as the fair value option, or FVO, in lieu of applying the Current Expected Credit Losses standard.

    December 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury

    Weekly Market Outlook: Richly Valued Equities Offset Record High Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

    Following Jerome Powell's testimony of December 11, Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield fell to 3.98%, which was its lowest close since the 3.95% of August 28, 2019.

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Andrew Pak, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Concerned With Forecast Uncertainty in CECL? Look Beyond the Baseline

    Using multiple scenarios in CECL can temper some of the volatility in the economic forecasts – the part that results from our inability to forecast the economy with complete precision.

    Weekly Market Outlook: Return of Christmas Past Does Not Impend

    More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

    Wholesale Used-Car Price Report: 2019Q3

    Auto retention values were not immune to the slowdown in the U.S. economy in the third quarter. Wholesale used-vehicle value retention dropped 1.7% in September on a year-over year basis. This at a time when U.S. economic growth slowed from 3% a year earlier to about 2%

    November 2019 Pdf Michael Brisson
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