Yukyung started her career as a macro strategist at a pan-Asia hedge fund. She has an M.S. in Statistics from Columbia University.
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The market value of U.S. common stock has been setting new record highs with regularity. The market appears to be supremely confident of two things.
Highly Commended for Best Fixed Income Paper in the 2019 Savvy Investor Awards, this paper tests the early warning power of the CreditEdge Deterioration Probability (DP) metric for Fallen Angel downgrades.
At the end of 1999, the $510 billion of Baa-rated bonds approximated 24% of the $2.098 trillion of outstanding investment-grade bond obligations of U.S. corporations.
All else the same, the market value of U.S. common equity needs to rise by another 28% before it matches the severity of its gross overvaluation of 1999-2000.
Highly leveraged corporate balance sheets have often been cited as one of the greater threats to both the most richly valued U.S. equity market since 2000 and a record-long business cycle upturn.
After shrinking by 0.6% year over year during January-September 2019, yearlong 2019's core after-tax profits may be unchanged annually, at best.