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The latest rally by Treasury bonds drove Moody's long-term industrial company bond yields down to new 63-year lows. On August 14, the single-A industrial company bond yield closed at 3.30% and the Baa industrial yield ended at 4.08%.
It was a tumultuous week. Volatility will lurk until trade issues are resolved. Perhaps the best markets can hope for on the trade front is a long-lived truce.
Since 1984, there have been seven distinct series of Fed rate cuts. Four of the seven rate cut episodes occurred amid a mature business cycle upturn and managed to stave off a recession. They happened in 1985, 1987, 1995, and 1998.
Forecasts of a prolonged depreciation of the dollar exchange rate may be overlooking to the increased importance of U.S. spending as a driver of global economic growth.
The release of second quarter corporate earnings is moving into full gear and investors are not entirely happy with the results.
Baa3-grade issuers constitute the bottom rung of the investment-grade ratings ladder. Once a Baa3 rating is subject to a “fallen angel” downgrade to speculative-grade, investors who are mandated to hold only investment-grade obligations must sell the now high-yield debt.