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    Dr. Tony Hughes

    Tony oversees the Moody’s Analytics credit analysis consulting projects for global lending institutions. An expert applied econometrician, he has helped develop approaches to stress testing and loss forecasting in retail, C&I, and CRE portfolios and recently introduced a methodology for stress testing a bank’s deposit book.

    Tony was formerly the lead Asia-Pacific economist for Moody’s Analytics. Prior to that, he held academic positions at the University of Adelaide, the University of New South Wales, and Vanderbilt University. He received his PhD in Econometrics from Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. Recent Articles:

    The Real Value of Stress Testing: Has CCAR Been Validated?

    Human Versus Machine: The Pros and Cons of AI in Credit

    Climate Change Stress Testing

    CECL, IFRS 9 and the Demand for Forecast Stability

    Finding a CECL Solution for Smaller Banks

    Commercial Lending Imbalances and the Looming Recession

    CECL is in trouble, but there’s a fix

    Limitations of Artificial Intelligence in Banking

    Published Work
    Article

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019
    Article

    The Real Value of Stress Testing: Has CCAR Been Validated?

    The theory that banks are now safer because of CCAR, though, has not yet been tested.

    July 2019
    Article

    CECL, IFRS 9 and the Demand for Forecast Stability

    Loan-loss provisioning models must take a variety of economic and client factors into account, but, with the right approach, banks can develop sensible loss forecasts that are more accurate and less susceptible to volatility.

    June 2019
    Article

    Climate Change Stress Testing

    As evidence of climate change builds and threats materialize,data will be invaluable in creating a framework for making future credit decisions.

    June 2019
    Article

    Finding a CECL Solution for Smaller Banks

    Good-quality CECL projections can be developed using high-quality data that is available free of charge.

    April 2019
    Article

    CECL Is In Trouble, But There's A Fix

    If CECL is to be rethought with this aim in mind, policymakers should learn from successful countercyclical features in the economy and design the new loan loss accounting system accordingly.

    January 2019