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    Tony Hughes

    Econometrician focusing on developing innovative approaches and tools for assessing and valuing financial institution assets, as well as for modeling and analyzing credit risk associated with various lending activities and loan portfolios.

    Tony Hughes leads Moody’s Analytics Research and oversees credit analysis consulting projects for global lending institutions. An expert in applied econometrics, he helped create stress testing and loss forecasting approaches for retail, C&I and commercial real estate portfolios. Tony developed a methodology for stress-testing bank deposit books and is working on approaches to streamline economic scenario building and improve economic path simulation.

    education
    Monash University: PhD, Econometrics
    Expertise
    solutions
    Moody's Analytics | Credit Risk Advisory Services

    Credit Risk Advisory Services: Moody's Analytics credit risk advisory services enable faster, better informed credit decisions through a holistic and consistent assessment of risk.

    Moody's Analytics | Credit Modeling

    Credit Risk Modeling: Moody’s Analytics delivers award-winning credit models and expert advisory services to provide you with best-in-class credit risk modeling solutions.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Forecasts

    Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.

    Moody's Analytics | Systemic Risk

    Systemic Risk: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive measures of network connectivity in the financial services industry.

    Moody's Analytics | Stress Testing

    Stress Testing: Moody’s Analytics helps financial institutions develop collaborative, auditable, repeatable, and transparent stress testing programs to meet regulatory demands.

    Moody's Analytics | Operational Risk Audit Compliance Training

    Portfolio Optimization: Quantify diversification benefits across portfolios and define risk types that inform risk management and active asset allocation decisions.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Advisory

    Economic Advisory: Moody's Analytics provides expert economic advisory services to clients to minimize risks and maximize opportunities.

    Published Work
    Article

    How Will Climate Change Impact Banks?

    We look at climate risk and consider how a heating planet might impact a bank's performance

    November 2019
    Presentation

    Expanding Roles of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Lending and Credit Risk Management ‍

    With ever-expanding and improving AI and Machine Learning available, we explore how a lending officer can make good decisions faster and cheaper through AI. Will AI/ML refine existing processes? Or lead to completely new approaches? Or Both? What is the promise? And what is the risk?

    November 2019
    Article

    Conservative Banks Do Not Need Conservative Models

    When banks manage risk, conservatism is a virtue. We, as citizens, want banks to hold slightly more capital than strictly necessary and to make, at the margin, more provisions for potential loan losses. Moreover, we want them to be generally cautious in their underwriting. But what is the best way to arrive at these conservative calculations?

    October 2019
    Article

    Model Validation Need Not Be a Blood Sport

    The traditional build-and-validate modeling approach is expensive and taxing. A more positive and productive validation experience entails competing models developed by independent teams.

    September 2019
    Article

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019
    Article

    The Real Value of Stress Testing: Has CCAR Been Validated?

    The theory that banks are now safer because of CCAR, though, has not yet been tested.

    July 2019