Director of Research
Sam leads the quantitative research team within the CreditEdge™ research group. In this role, he develops novel risk and forecasting solutions for financial institutions while providing thought leadership on related trends in global financial markets.
He is author of the book Macrofinancial Risk Analysis, published in the Wiley Finance series with foreword by Nobel Laureate Robert Merton, as well as the author of more than 20 peer-reviewed articles in academic journals. He has BS degrees in mathematics and economics from Duke University, where he graduated summa cum laude, and a doctorate in economics from the University of Oxford.
Since the Asia crisis, most countries in Asia have displayed a longer term secular trend of falling default risk.
The Deterioration Probability - At a Glance
The Deterioration Probability Methodology
This article proposes a method of modeling realized losses given default (LGDs) as a function of macroeconomic drivers for stress testing purposes.
In this article, we model stressed LGDs as a function of macroeconomic drivers and find that LGDs sometimes lead PDs by several months during crisis periods.
This article introduces Credit Risk Cascades, a new model that forecasts probability of default of financial institutions under compound scenarios. The model seamlessly integrates macroeconomic, counterparty, and systemic risk projections.
With auto leasing close to record highs, the need for accurate and transparent used-car price forecasts is paramount. Concerns about the effect of off-lease volume on prices have recently peaked, and those exposed to risks associated with vehicle valuations are seeking new forms of intelligence. With these forces in mind, Moody's Analytics AutoCycle™ has been developed to address these evolving market dynamics.
In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.
In this webinar, Moody’s Analytics combines the techniques of network analysis with the richness of Moody’s CreditEdge™ platform to compute systemic risk measures spanning the last 20 years for five major southeast Asian economies.
This article looks back at the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 and applies new methods of measuring systemic risk and pinpointing weaknesses, which can be used by today’s financial institutions and regulators.