Ryan Sweet is director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics. He is also editor-in-chief of Economy.com, to which he regularly contributes, and a member of the US macroeconomics team in West Chester, PA. He is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the US economy, according to MarketWatch. He is also an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He has a master's degree in economics from the University of Delaware and a bachelor's degree in economics from Washington College.

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Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

May 2019 WebPage Mark ZandiDr. Cristian deRitis, Ryan Sweet
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Earnings Slump Would Unmask Dangers of High Leverage

According to the Federal Reserve's “Financial Stability Report” of May 2019, not only has the outstanding debt of nonfinancial businesses outpaced nominal GDP during the past 10 years (or since 2008), but the growth of debt has been skewed toward riskier firms.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Credit May Again Outshine Equities at Divining Markets' Near-Term Path

During a week of heightened equity market volatility, the corporate credit market was relatively calm. As of May 8's close, the credit market had yet to sense much collateral damage from an intensification of the trade conflict between China and the U.S.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina EllSteven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Not Even the Great Depression Could Push the Baa Default Rate Above 2%

The now positive trend of Baa-industrial credit rating revisions is nearly diametrically opposed to the negative trend of high-yield rating changes.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Benign Default Outlook Implies Profits Will Outrun Corporate Debt

A high ratio of corporate debt to GDP is tolerable as long as a material contraction of core pretax profits is avoided. History shows that the ratio of corporate debt to core pretax profits performs better at explaining high-yield defaults than does the ratio of corporate debt to GDP.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Scott Hoyt, Steven Shields
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Upside Risks to the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has weakened in early 2019, fanning concerns that the expansion is running out of steam. However, a number of factors that are contributing to this apparent downshift are temporary.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Brendan Meighan, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez, Andrew Pak, Adam Ozimek
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Outstandings and Rating Changes Supply Radically Different Default Outlooks

The credit ratings distribution of outstanding U.S. high-yield corporate bond debt and the distribution of high-yield credit rating revisions now deliver conflicting messages regarding the high-yield default rate's likely direction.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: High Leverage Offset by Ample Coverage of Net Interest Expense

The faster growth of nonfinancial-corporate debt relative to both nominal GDP and the group's core pretax profits has been offset by the comparatively slow growth of net interest expense.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Subdued Outlooks for Revenues and Profits Portend Lower Interest Rates

Recession fears abound yet the prices of earnings-sensitive securities and industrial commodities have held up reasonably well. Indicators of financial distress have yet to warn of sharply lower share prices and a surge in corporate debt defaults. Apparently markets are confident in the remedial powers of lower interest rates.

March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Faraz Syed, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Will Cut Rates If 10-Year Yield Breaks Under 2.4%

The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection.

March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
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