Upcoming Course
Ryan Sweet
Ryan Sweet
U.S. macroeconomics, focusing on monetary policy and forecasting high-frequency U.S. economic data
solutions
Economic Research: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic analysis to help clients understand key economic drivers across all geographic levels.
Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.
Economic Data: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic, demographic, and financial data at the global and regional levels.
Economic Workstations: Moody's Analytics provides powerful workstations for economic research, data, and forecasting analytics.
TOPICS
Economic Risk Assessment: Quantitative economic assessment to help you understand the impact of forward-looking changes on the performance of your business and portfolios.
Economic Forecasts: Forecasts potential economic outcomes on the performance of businesses and investments.
Historical Economic Performance: Historical and recent performance data to assess performance by geography, indicators, asset class, time and conditions.
Weekly Market Outlook: Worsened Fundamentals Lift Downgrades Well Above Upgrades
Financial markets have been buffeted by changing views regarding the trade dispute between China and the United States. Nevertheless, the direction taken by earnings-sensitive securities will ultimately be determined by the outlook for profits.
Weekly Market Outlook: Next Recession May Lower 10-year Treasury Yield to Range of 0.5% to 1%
Despite today's ultra-low yields, Treasury bonds may still pay off handsomely once recession strikes.
Weekly Market Outlook: Abundant Liquidity Suppresses Defaults
Nothing quite increases the risk of debt repayment like a drop in the income that funds the servicing of outstanding debt.
Weekly Market Outlook: Cheap Money in Action
The corporate bond market has proven to be resilient amid recent equity market volatility. Moreover, despite a slew of bearish headlines, the market value of U.S. common stock's latest low of August 14 was still a huge 20.8% above its low of December 24, 2018, while August 2019's month-long average of 19.0 points for the VIX was well under the 25.0 points of December 2018.
Weekly Market Outlook: Bond Implied Ratings Hint of More Fallen-Angel Downgrades
On September 9, the senior unsecured bond rating of Ford Motor was lowered from Baa3 to Ba1, where the downgrade constituted a ratings reduction from investment- to speculative-grade (or high-yield). Because investor mandates often prohibit the inclusion of high-yield bonds in investment-grade portfolios, such a downgrade can quickly lower the prices of adversely affected bonds.
Weekly Market Outlook: Leading Credit-Risk Indicator Signals A Rising Default Rate
The month-long average for the expected default frequency metric of U.S./Canadian high-yield issuers climbed from August 2018's 2.38% and July 2019's 4.16% to 4.59% in August.
