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Ryan Sweet is director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics. He is also editor-in-chief of, to which he regularly contributes, and a member of the US macroeconomics team in West Chester, PA. He is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the US economy, according to MarketWatch. He is also an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania. He has a master's degree in economics from the University of Delaware and a bachelor's degree in economics from Washington College.

Related Insights

Weekly Market Outlook: Base Metals Price Drop Suggests All Is Not Well

Though it goes practically unmentioned, one of the more unexpected developments of late has been the stunning collapse of Moody's industrial metals price index. In part, the industrial metals price index's average of July-to-date is a deep 8.2% under its June 2018 average because of uncertainties stemming from trade-related issues. Since worries surrounding a trade war came to the fore following June 14's close, the base metals price index has sunk by 13.0%. Nevertheless, the base metals price index's month-long average had peaked some time ago in February 2018, where the subsequent slide by the index through mid-June reflected a loss of momentum for global industrial activity.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell

Weekly Market Outlook: Markets Suggest the U.S. Fares Best in a Trade War

Financial markets believe that the U.S. is likely to fare better than most other major economies in an all-out trade war. This is because (i) international trade accounts for a smaller share of U.S. business activity, (ii) the U.S. imports far more than it exports, and (iii) the U.S. now well outperforms other major economies. Nevertheless, though the U.S. is better able the withstand the direct and collateral damage of a trade conflict, it is still expected suffer casualties in a trade war. And such casualties might well influence the outcome of November's Congressional elections.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed

Weekly Market Outlook: Outstandings of Rated U.S. Corporate Bonds Dip from 2018's First to Second Quarter

According to Moody's Capital Markets Research Group, second-quarter 2018's outstandings of Moody's-rated U.S. corporate bonds excluding ABS and MBS rose by 3.3% year-over-year to $7.212 trillion, which was a slight 0.6% under first-quarter 2018's record high of $7.259 trillion. The second quarter's yearly increase of 3.3% was much slower than the 6.3% yearly increase of 2018's first quarter and was the smallest since the 2.1% of 2015's final quarter. The -0.6% dip by U.S. corporate bonds outstanding from the first to the second quarter of 2018 was only the third such sequential decline by the rated outstandings of U.S. corporate bonds during the past five years. The other two quarterly retreats were those of 0.2% of 2016's final quarter and 5.7% in 2015's final quarter.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Alaistair Chan