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    Ryan Sweet

    Leading U.S economist, specializing in U.S. monetary policy; recognized by MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP as among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of U.S. economy; contributor and editor-in-chief, Economy.com.

    Ryan Sweet leads real-time economics at Moody's Analytics and is a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He specializes in the U.S. economy, including monetary policy and forecasting high-frequency economic indicators. Considered by MarketWatch and Bloomberg LP as among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, Ryan also is an adjunct professor of Economics at West Chester University of Pennsylvania.

    Expertise
    solutions
    Moody's Analytics | Economic Research

    Economic Research: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic analysis to help clients understand key economic drivers across all geographic levels.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Forecasts

    Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Data

    Economic Data: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic, demographic, and financial data at the global and regional levels.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Workstations

    Economic Workstations: Moody's Analytics provides powerful workstations for economic research, data, and forecasting analytics.

    TOPICS

    Economic Risk Assessment: Quantitative economic assessment to help you understand the impact of forward-looking changes on the performance of your business and portfolios.

    Economic Forecasts: Forecasts potential economic outcomes on the performance of businesses and investments.

    Historical Economic Performance: Historical and recent performance data to assess performance by geography, indicators, asset class, time and conditions.

    Published Work
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Worsened Fundamentals Lift Downgrades Well Above Upgrades

    Financial markets have been buffeted by changing views regarding the trade dispute between China and the United States. Nevertheless, the direction taken by earnings-sensitive securities will ultimately be determined by the outlook for profits.

    October 2019
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Next Recession May Lower 10-year Treasury Yield to Range of 0.5% to 1%

    Despite today's ultra-low yields, Treasury bonds may still pay off handsomely once recession strikes.

    October 2019
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Abundant Liquidity Suppresses Defaults

    Nothing quite increases the risk of debt repayment like a drop in the income that funds the servicing of outstanding debt.

    September 2019
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Cheap Money in Action

    The corporate bond market has proven to be resilient amid recent equity market volatility. Moreover, despite a slew of bearish headlines, the market value of U.S. common stock's latest low of August 14 was still a huge 20.8% above its low of December 24, 2018, while August 2019's month-long average of 19.0 points for the VIX was well under the 25.0 points of December 2018.

    September 2019
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Bond Implied Ratings Hint of More Fallen-Angel Downgrades

    On September 9, the senior unsecured bond rating of Ford Motor was lowered from Baa3 to Ba1, where the downgrade constituted a ratings reduction from investment- to speculative-grade (or high-yield). Because investor mandates often prohibit the inclusion of high-yield bonds in investment-grade portfolios, such a downgrade can quickly lower the prices of adversely affected bonds.

    September 2019
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Leading Credit-Risk Indicator Signals A Rising Default Rate

    The month-long average for the expected default frequency metric of U.S./Canadian high-yield issuers climbed from August 2018's 2.38% and July 2019's 4.16% to 4.59% in August.

    September 2019