Ryan Sweet leads real-time economics at Moody's Analytics and is a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team. He is also head of the firm’s monetary policy research, following actions by the Federal Reserve Bank and examining their potential impact on the U.S. economy and capital markets. In addition, Ryan is an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania.
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After shrinking by 0.6% year over year during January-September 2019, yearlong 2019's core after-tax profits may be unchanged annually, at best.
An overvalued equity market increases the risk of a deep sell-off of equities that will damage corporate credit.
Following Jerome Powell's testimony of December 11, Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield fell to 3.98%, which was its lowest close since the 3.95% of August 28, 2019.
More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.
U.S. business activity has not been exceeding its reach, and that will help extend the long-lived bull market and record-long economic recovery.
For January-October 2019, the corporate bond issuance by U.S. based businesses grew by 12.4% year over year to $871.0 billion for investment-grade obligations and increased by 15.2% annually to $186.5 billion for high-yield offerings.