Assistant Director, Economic Research
Katrina Ell is an economist with Moody’s Analytics, covering national and metropolitan economic issues across the Asia-Pacific region.
An experienced analyst and speaker, Katrina has been featured in major media outlets such as ABC Radio, Asian Investor, Bangkok Post, Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg TV, Business World, Channel News Asia, CNBC, Financial Times, IFR Asia, Macquarie Radio, Reuters, SCMP, Singapore Business Review, Sky News TV, Straits Times, WA Today, Yahoo Finance and Your Money. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, supervising insurance and superannuation companies. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics with honors from Macquarie University.
The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection.
Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.
The latest version of the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States” was released on March 7. As of 2018's final quarter, the total outstandings of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt grew by 5.1% year-to-year to a record high $51.796 trillion.
Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.
Weakness abroad and a faltering demand for U.S. output now put downward pressure on both earnings-sensitive securities' prices and benchmark Treasury yields. The equity and high-yield credit rallies will be put on hold until the earnings outlook stabilizes.
Two milestones will be arrived at in 2019. First, but not necessarily the foremost, Moody's corporate bond yield averages will record their 100th anniversary in 2019.
We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.
High-yield bonds have led the credit market in total return thus far in 2019. After soaring from 6.32% at the end of September to 8.06% by year-end 2018, a composite speculative-grade bond yield has dropped to February 20's 6.79%.
In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt rose to a record high 46.0% of GDP as of the span-ended September 2018. Nonfinancial corporate debt's 6.4% year-over-year increase for the 12-months-ended September 2018 outran nominal GDP's comparably measured rise of 5.0%.
Notwithstanding January's bigger-than-expected addition to payrolls, the futures market recently assigned a mere 3% probability to a hiking of fed funds at any point in 2019.