Janet joined the research team of Moody's Analytics in 2008. She leads RiskCalc model development and small business modeling efforts. Janet works closely with clients to facilitate better understanding and applications of RiskCalc models. She also pushes forward on research initiatives such as exposure-at-default modeling, accounting quality measurement, and machine learning in credit risk modeling. She has published in academic and professional journals. Janet has a PhD in finance from City University of Hong Kong and a PhD in accounting from Carnegie Mellon University.
Published Work
Whitepaper

Sovereign & Size-Adjusted EDF-Implied Rating Template (for Private Firms)

RiskCalc™ EDF™ (Expected Default Frequency) values and agency ratings are widely used credit risk measures. RiskCalc EDF values typically measure default risk for private companies, while agency ratings are only available for rated companies. A RiskCalc EDF value measures a company's standalone credit risk based on financial statement information, while an agency rating considers qualitative factors such as Business Profile, Financial Policy, external support, and country-related risks. Moody's Analytics new Sovereign & Size-Adjusted EDF-Implied Rating Template combines RiskCalc EDF values with additional factors to provide a rating comparable to agency ratings for private companies. The new template applies to RiskCalc EDF values across numerous geographies and regulatory environments. With the new template, users can generate a rating more comparable to an agency rating than RiskCalc EDF values or EDF-implied ratings. Analyzing data from 3,900+ companies in 60+ countries, we find that sovereign rating and total asset size, in addition to EDF value, have a statistically significant impact on an agency rating — our quantitative template incorporating these three variables reliably estimates agency ratings in a robust fashion.

December 2018
Whitepaper

Identifying At-Risk Names in Your Private Firm Portfolio — RiskCalc Early Warning Toolkit

This report outlines a practical approach for using RiskCalc EDF credit measures to effectively monitor large portfolios of private firms and to proactively identify at-risk names. The RiskCalc Early Warning Toolkit Excel add-in is an easy to use, yet comprehensive tool that allows users to focus costly and scarce resources on a highly targeted selection of the most at-risk names in their portfolios. This research for private firms compliments previous research on Early Warning Toolkit for public firms. The Early Warning Toolkit identifies at-risk names within a private firm portfolio well before default, using a number of different EDF-related risk metrics.

November 2018
Whitepaper

Features of a Lifetime PD Model: Evidence from Public, Private, and Rated Firms

With the new CECL and IFRS 9 requirements, we see an increased need for lifetime probability of default models. In this document, we formally investigate and summarize the term structure properties consistently seen across public, private, and rated firms. We observe that the default rate for “good” firms tends to increase over time, while the default rate for “bad” firms decreases over time, an indication of the mean-reversion effect seen with firms' default risk.

May 2018
Whitepaper

Features of a Lifetime PD Model: Evidence from Public, Private, and Rated Firms

With the new CECL and IFRS 9 requirements, this document formally investigates and summarizes the term structure properties consistently seen across public, private, and rated firms.

May 2018
Webinar-on-Demand

Applications of Alternative Data in Credit Decisioning

With an immense amount of available data generated worldwide within the last two years, the next evolution of banking analytics will include information from a variety of open and closed sources.

April 2018
Presentation

Applications of Alternative Data in Credit Decisioning

In this webinar, a panel of research and data scientist experts across Moody's Analytics discuss social data in probability of default modeling, closed and open data for location scoring, and text analytics for credit risk.

April 2018