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A Few Potholes Ahead for U.S. Vehicle Industry

RYAN SWEET, AUGUST 2017

July vehicle sales strengthen our belief that the U.S. vehicle cycle is in a late-stage expansion, but there are risks that it could unwind more quickly than we expect. Unit sales have disappointed recently, totaling 16.76 million annualized units in July, only a touch above the 16.7 million in June and below the 16.85 million average in the second quarter. Stronger sales could be needed to work off inventories, which are climbing. Otherwise, manufacturers could have to adjust their production schedules for the remainder of this year, hurting manufacturing output. Read the Full Article.

Chart Book

Auto Lease Total: Default Balance (Mil. $, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics

Auto Lease Total: Originations Number (ths, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics
Auto Loan Total: Default Balance (Mil. $, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics

Auto Loan Total: Originations Number (ths, NSA) Source: Equifax, Moody's Analytics
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Jan1995=100, SA) Source: Mainheim, Moody's Analytics

New Vehicle Sales (Mil. #, SAAR) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody's Analytics

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