Brexit Scenarios: Potential Outcomes from the UK's Exit from the EU

In this paper, Moody's Analytics constructs five economic scenarios analyzing the impact of the British exit vote on the UK as well as on the global economy. The post-exit baseline characterizes the most likely outcome in which the UK negotiates an agreement with the EU quickly. Rejection of the exit is an unlikely upside scenario. Three stress scenarios are based on gradually more severe assumptions and include the U.K. Splintering, the EU Partial Fracture, and a Euro Zone Crackup.

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