Many in the auto industry are concerned about the impact of ride-sharing. In this article analyze the impact of ride-share services like Uber and Lyft on the private transportation market.
In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.
According to the Brookfield RPS – Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, Canada's housing market has slowed, but is still a long way from a correction.
Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation. The abundance of vehicles in the US that are older than 10 years will soon need to be replaced, and together with continuing demand from ex-lessees, this demand will ensure that prices remain supported under baseline macroeconomic conditions.
Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation.
To effectively manage risk in your auto portfolios, you need to account for future economic conditions. Relying on models that do not fully account for cyclical economic factors and include subjective overlay, may produce inaccurate, inconsistent or biased estimates of residual values.
Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.
Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president's term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.
Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
According to new forecasts from Moody's Analytics, based on the Brookfield RPS House Price Indices, Canadian house prices will experience slower growth over the next five years, but avoid significant declines at the national level forecasts project that a number of metropolitan areas, most notably Vancouver and Edmonton, will experience some modest price declines in the near-term.
In this article, we demonstrate how to combine our forecasts of bank financial statements with internal data to produce forecasts that better reflect the macroeconomic environment posited under the various Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review scenarios.
The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country's place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.
We demonstrate the core capabilities of our vehicle residual forecasting model to capture aging and usage effects and illustrate the material implications for car valuation of different macroeconomic scenarios such as recessions and oil price spikes.
With auto leasing close to record highs, the need for accurate and transparent used-car price forecasts is paramount. Concerns about the effect of off-lease volume on prices have recently peaked, and those exposed to risks associated with vehicle valuations are seeking new forms of intelligence. With these forces in mind, Moody's Analytics AutoCycle™ has been developed to address these evolving market dynamics.
In this article, our experts focus on two recent developments: how to manage lease-term or model-year concentration risk and how to find affordable finance options for subprime or near-prime sector.
In this webinar, Dr. Brian Poi, Director, Economic Research, demonstrates how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark for internally generated forecasts.
This article discusses the methodology used in generating forecasts of the RCA commercial Property Prices Indices.
In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.
In this paper we discuss our approach to forecasting residual car values that accounts for cyclical economic factors affecting the automotive industry, under normal and stressed scenarios.
This article describes how to build consistent projections for standard credit risk metrics and mark-to-market parameters simultaneously within a single, unified environment: stochastic dynamic macro models.
Dr. Gustavo Ordóñez-Sanz
In this article, banks can significantly improve the effectiveness of their stress-testing exercises by incorporating systemic risk measures.
This methodology explains the four types of Moody's Analytics forecasts and how our alternative scenarios are created.
Regulators are challenging how to perform stress testing on low default portfolios by reviewing bank's PD models for RWA stress testing, in the absence of data they need to be convinced of the methodology used. In this Moody's Analytics webinar we put forward a statistical approach to stress testing low default portfolios with practical case studies
The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are based on observed changes in individual home prices. The main variable used or index calculation is the price change between two arm's length sales of the same single-family home. Home price data are gathered from local deed recording offices across the country. For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding previous sales of the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired into a “sale pair.” Sale pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.
Moody's Analytics' presentation on alternative scenarios highlights key points to evaluate the impact of shocks, expose vulnerabilities and develop strategic business plans while enhancing regulatory compliance. By analyzing the common business challenges in the industry, Moody's Analytics provides a recommendation on how to make informed decisions that minimize risks & maximize opportunities resulting from economic changes(both good and bad).