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Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times

In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.

May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi

Canada Housing Outlook: The Tide Starts to Ebb

According to the Brookfield RPS – Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, Canada's housing market has slowed, but is still a long way from a correction.

May 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

"How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?" Presentation Slides

Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation. The abundance of vehicles in the US that are older than 10 years will soon need to be replaced, and together with continuing demand from ex-lessees, this demand will ensure that prices remain supported under baseline macroeconomic conditions.

February 2017 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan

How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?

Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation.

February 2017 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes, Michael Vogan

Economic Forecasting & Stress Testing Residual Vehicle Values

To effectively manage risk in your auto portfolios, you need to account for future economic conditions. Relying on models that do not fully account for cyclical economic factors and include subjective overlay, may produce inaccurate, inconsistent or biased estimates of residual values.

December 2016 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes

Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency

Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi

Post-US Presidential Election Outlook

Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president's term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.

November 2016 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi

Moody's Analytics & Brookfield RPS Canada Housing Market Outlook

According to new forecasts from Moody's Analytics, based on the Brookfield RPS House Price Indices, Canadian house prices will experience slower growth over the next five years, but avoid significant declines at the national level forecasts project that a number of metropolitan areas, most notably Vancouver and Edmonton, will experience some modest price declines in the near-term.

October 2016 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos

Brexit - Economic & Financial Aftermath

The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country's place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.

June 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi

Moody's Analytics Forecasts of RCA Commercial Property Price Indexes

This article discusses the methodology used in generating forecasts of the RCA commercial Property Prices Indices.

September 2015 Pdf Dr. Juan M. Licari, Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Dr. José Suárez-Lledó

Systemic Risk Monitor 1.0: A Network Approach

In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.

Residual Car Values Forecasting Using AutoCycle™

In this paper we discuss our approach to forecasting residual car values that accounts for cyclical economic factors affecting the automotive industry, under normal and stressed scenarios.

July 2015 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes

Multi-Period Stochastic Scenario Generation

This article describes how to build consistent projections for standard credit risk metrics and mark-to-market parameters simultaneously within a single, unified environment: stochastic dynamic macro models.

June 2015 Pdf Dr. Gustavo Ordóñez-Sanz

Putting Systemic Stress into the Stress-Testing System

In this article, banks can significantly improve the effectiveness of their stress-testing exercises by incorporating systemic risk measures.

March 2015 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes

Global Scenario Development Using Moody's Analytics Country Models

This methodology explains the four types of Moody's Analytics forecasts and how our alternative scenarios are created.

February 2014 Pdf Petr Zemcik

Handling low default portfolios under stress

Regulators are challenging how to perform stress testing on low default portfolios by reviewing bank's PD models for RWA stress testing, in the absence of data they need to be convinced of the methodology used. In this Moody's Analytics webinar we put forward a statistical approach to stress testing low default portfolios with practical case studies

February 2014 Pdf Manuele Iorio, Dr. Juan M. Licari

Case-Shiller® House Price Index FAQs

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are based on observed changes in individual home prices. The main variable used or index calculation is the price change between two arm's length sales of the same single-family home. Home price data are gathered from local deed recording offices across the country. For each home sale transaction, a search is conducted to find information regarding previous sales of the same house. If an earlier transaction is found, the two transactions are paired into a “sale pair.” Sale pairs are designed to yield the price change for the same house, while holding the quality and size of each house constant.

April 2013 Pdf

Forecasts with Alternative Scenarios: Evaluate the impact of shocks, expose vulnerabilities and develop strategic business plans while enhancing your regulatory compliance

Moody's Analytics' presentation on alternative scenarios highlights key points to evaluate the impact of shocks, expose vulnerabilities and develop strategic business plans while enhancing regulatory compliance. By analyzing the common business challenges in the industry, Moody's Analytics provides a recommendation on how to make informed decisions that minimize risks & maximize opportunities resulting from economic changes(both good and bad).

June 2011 Pdf Celine Cheng
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