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Weekly Market Outlook: The Least Inaccurate Forecaster

The forthcoming passive reduction of the Fed's bond holdings may not be followed by higher Treasury bond yields. So suggests what came after October 2014's end to the third installment of quantitative easing (QE3). In fact, since the October 2014 expiry of QE3, the average 10-year Treasury of 2.07% has been less than its 2.30% average of October 2014, never mind its “taper tantrum” average of 2.71%.

July 2017 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka, Katrina Ell

Weekly Market Outlook: Overvalued Equities Boost Credit Ratings

Relatively narrow corporate bond yield spreads reflect confidence in the business outlook for 2017's second half. Apparently, corporate credit expects profits growth will be sufficient to avoid a worsening outlook for defaults.

July 2017 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka, Katrina Ell

Battle for Small Business Capital Access: Traditional vs. Alternative Lenders

This article explores innovative strategies that traditional banks can use in small business lending to remain competitive with alternative lenders.

July 2017 WebPage Michael Schwartz

Machine Learning: Challenges, Lessons, and Opportunities in Credit Risk Modeling

In this article, we analyze the performance of several machine learning methods in assessing credit risk of small and medium-sized borrowers.

July 2017 WebPage Dinesh Bacham, Dr. Janet Zhao

When Good Data Happen to Good People: Boosting Productivity with High-Quality Data

In this article, we show the mechanisms through which data quality and productivity interact, and how investments in data quality can offer productivity gains.

The Effect of Ride-Sharing on the Auto Industry

In this article, we consider some possible long-term ramifications of ride-sharing for the broader auto indust

July 2017 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes

Reconsidering Risk Management, Governance, and Stress Testing

This article discusses areas such as capital stress testing where simplification of regulations could improve the flow of credit while protecting the financial system.

July 2017 WebPage Dr. Deniz Tudor

What Do Half a Million Loans Say About the Impact of CECL on Loan Loss Allowance?

In this article, we use historical data to calculate and compare loan- and portfolio-level loss allowances under the incurred loss model and CECL.

July 2017 WebPage Dr. Yanping Pan, Dr. Yashan Wang

Accounting for Purchased Credit Deteriorated Financial Assets: Current and Future GAAP

In this article, we explore existing and future accounting and operational challenges faced by institutions acquiring financial assets with credit deterioration.

July 2017 WebPage Masha Muzyka

Predicting Earnings: CECL's Implications for Allowance Forecasts

In this article, we demonstrate the effect of the new allowance framework by quantifying allowances and credit earnings volatility for a sample portfolio.

July 2017 WebPage Joy Hart, Anna Labowicz

Modeling Stressed LGDs for Macroeconomic Scenarios

In this article, we model stressed LGDs as a function of macroeconomic drivers and find that LGDs sometimes lead PDs by several months during crisis periods.

Combining Information to Better Assess the Credit Risk of Small Firms and Medium-Sized Enterprises

In this article, we combine financial information with behavioral factors to more accurately assess credit risk for small firms and medium-sized enterprises.

July 2017 WebPage Dr. Douglas Dwyer

Risk Perspectives: Managing Disruption

Examines the role of disruptive technologies in the financial sector and how firms can improve their practices to remain competitive.

July 2017 WebPage

How to Translate Data Into Business Intelligence

The main barrier to the adoption of business intelligence (BI for short) is making sense of the overwhelming number of options available for boosting performance. Let us get started on the journey to become a data-driven organization and turn data analysis into bottom-line results.

June 2017 Pdf Mehna Raissi, Anju Govil, Nancy Michael

Unleash your Predictive Power and Drive Profitability

Listen in as Moody's Analytics experts discuss using alternative forms of data combined with traditional financial data for a high-level dose of risk management when considering smaller loans.

June 2017 WebPage Michael Schwartz

Dr. Kohl's 2017 Ag Views From the Road

The current Ag cycle is taking a financial toll on producers and Ag Lenders alike. Dr. Kohl has been traveling across the farmlands of North America and shares a unique perspective on where he sees the future of Agriculture lending.

June 2017 WebPage Doug Johnson, David Kohl

Weekly Market Outlook: Low Bond Yields Extend an Aging Upturn

A renewed drop by the price of crude oil has grabbed the market's attention. June 2017's average price of WTI crude oil is on track to fall by nearly -6.5% annually. In turn, the annual rate of PCE price index inflation may eventually slow from April's 1.7%, or when the price of crude oil was up by 24.3% from a year earlier.

June 2017 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Katrina Ell, Tomas Holinka, Faraz Syed

Reduce Credit Risk Exposure with Personalized Training

Moody's Analytics is revolutionizing credit training by using Artificial Intelligence techniques in scenario based "smart testing" to individually assess the level of knowledge and behaviors of lenders.

June 2017 WebPage Kevin Hadlock

Weekly Market Outlook: Falling Jobless Rate Thins Spreads, but Fails to Spur Inflation or Spending

As recently as May 2017, the consensus expected that 2017's second quarter would end with the midpoint of the fed funds target range at 1.125% and the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.5%. Though the consensus prognostication for fed funds was spot on, its prediction of the 10-year Treasury yield will probably prove to be too high. It's doubtful that anyone who correctly foresaw a 1.125% midpoint for fed funds by mid-year also predicted what is likely to be a less-than-2.25% 10-year Treasury by the end of 2017's first half. After reaching 2.62% on the eve of March 14's hiking of fed funds to 0.875%, the benchmark Treasury yield has since eased to 2.16% on June 15, the day after the latest ratcheting up of fed funds.

June 2017 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Alaistair Chan, Katrina Ell, Tomas Holinka

How Lenders Can Adapt Estimated Credit Loss Methodologies for CECL

This article provides an overview of the CECL Quantification: Commercial & Industrial Portfolios webinar, discussing the common methodologies for estimating credit losses in C&I lending and how to adapt methodologies to be more forward-looking and compliant with CECL requirements.

May 2017 Pdf

Weekly Market Outlook: Inflation's Bad Breadth May Help Contain Interest Rates

Not too long ago, the high-yield bond spread swelled and the projected default rate soared. However, that intensification of credit stress would be quickly reversed mostly because debt repayment problems were largely confined to the oil and gas industry. In other words, the late 2015 and early 2016 worsening of corporate credit conditions lacked enough breadth to endanger both financial stability and the business cycle upturn.

May 2017 Pdf David Munves, John Lonski, Ben Garber, Yukyung Choi, Irina Baron, Xian Li, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh

Rethinking Commercial Real Estate Credit Risk

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are seeing strong loan growth, combined with easing underwriting, resulting in increased credit risk. CRE mortgages often make up a significant part of a bank's loan portfolio. In this webinar, we explore the keys to effective credit risk management for CRE.

April 2017 WebPage Sumit Grover, Christian Henkel

Weekly Market Outlook: Credit Improves as Debt Growth Slows and Equities Rally

The worrisome overvaluation of US equities has benefits for credit. It firmed US corporate credit quality via an increase in the number of rating upgrades ascribed to mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, and infusions of common equity capital. And at the same time it reduced the frequency of downgrades stemming from highly leveraged takeovers, stock buybacks, and special dividends. As shown by Q4-2016's smallest amount of nonfinancial-corporate net borrowing since Q4-2010 and the lowest reading on net stock buybacks since Q2-2014, 2016's equity rally has effectively increased reliance on common equity capital, while dulling the incentive for companies to buy back their often richly priced equity shares.

April 2017 Pdf David Munves, John Lonski, Ben Garber, Yukyung Choi, Irina Baron, Xian Li, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh

Weekly Market Outlook: Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite

For the first time since 1987-1988, the US credit cycle has stabilized following a surge by credit rating downgrades relative to upgrades, a jump by the high-yield default rate, and a pronounced widening by corporate bond yield spreads. After six years at 49% of US high-yield credit rating revisions from July 2009 through June 2015, downgrades soared to 71% in the year-ended June 2016. Then downgrades eased to 58% for the year-ended March 2017 and sank to 48% during Q1-2017.

April 2017 Pdf David Munves, John Lonski, Ben Garber, Yukyung Choi, Irina Baron, Xian Li, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh

Weekly Market Outlook: Bond Yields Will Fall When the Equity Bubble Bursts

Stocks are not cheap. Thus, equities are vulnerable to a deep slide in the event profits contract or interest rates undergo a disruptive climb. The latter would probably include an increase by the 10-year Treasury yield to at least 2.75%.

April 2017 Pdf David Munves, John Lonski, Ben Garber, Yukyung Choi, Irina Baron, Xian Li, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh

Workflow: The Key to Efficient Commercial Loan Origination

In this paper we explore how different attributes of a workflow can contribute to greater operational efficiency and faster turnarounds for lenders.

April 2017 Pdf Anju Govil, Todd Classen

Beyond Compliance: How to Improve Loan Origination and Risk Capital Management with CECL Modeling

Meeting the requirements of CECL can also support better overall risk and capital decision-making for smaller banks —potentially providing benefits to the business that more than offset the costs.

April 2017 Pdf

Build or Buy: Transforming Commercial Credit Origination

Technology is rapidly changing the way we do business. In the financial services sector, arguably the largest industry in the world, this has never been more true. From mobile accessibility to cloud computing, technology is driving a new wave of change fueled by a dynamic fintech industry comprising hundreds of companies – many of which did not exist ten or even five years ago. Unconstrained by legacy architecture, alternative and challenger lenders embracing these technologies offer a new customer experience in terms of accessibility, speed, and transparency.

April 2017 Pdf David Ratnage

Ag Renewals from a Regulator's Perspective – Today & Beyond

Join Doug Johnson, Sales Director at Moody's Analytics, as he shares the concerns of Ag lenders and producers from around the US. Also, hear from Nick Hatz (Federal Reserve Bank) and Kelly Lammers (Nebraska Dept. of Banking & Finance) who will provide best practices to help banks thrive in today's economy.

April 2017 WebPage Doug Johnson

Weekly Market Outlook: Near Perfect Equity Market Firms Credit

High-yield bonds endured a wild ride in March. A composite speculative-grade bond yield started the month at 5.65% for its lowest reading since September 2014. However, by March 14 this had swiftly climbed to 6.34%, which was the highest since December 16, 2016, only to suddenly drop to 6.04% as of March 29.

March 2017 Pdf David Munves, John Lonski, Ben Garber, Yukyung Choi, Irina Baron, Xian Li, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh
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