General Information & Client Services
  • Americas: +1.212.553.1653
  • Asia: +852.3551.3077
  • China: +86.10.6319.6580
  • EMEA: +44.20.7772.5454
  • Japan: +81.3.5408.4100
Media Relations
  • New York: +1.212.553.0376
  • London: +44.20.7772.5456
  • Hong Kong: +852.3758.1350
  • Tokyo: +813.5408.4110
  • Sydney: +61.2.9270.8141
  • Mexico City: +001.888.779.5833
  • Buenos Aires: +0800.666.3506
  • São Paulo: +0800.891.2518

Dr. Steven Morrison is a senior director in Moody’s Analytics insurance research group. Steven joined Barrie & Hibbert in 2001 and played a leading role in the design and development of B&H's Economic Scenario Generator software. His recent research and advisory work has focused on applications of the Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) proxy modeling technique to multi-period problems, in particular capital projection and projection of dynamic hedge programs in order to assess hedge effectiveness. He pioneered the use of LSMC as a tool for projection of insurance liability values and measurement of economic capital, publishing in industry journals on this topic. He has an MSc in financial mathematics and a PhD in theoretical physics.

Related Insights

Proxy Methods for Hedge Projection: Two Variable Annuity Case Studies

The challenge of projecting dynamic hedge portfolios for blocks of Variable Annuities (VA) with complex guarantees has proven to be extremely computationally demanding but also essential for obtaining hedging credit in reserves or capital calculations. Our previous research has argued in favor of proxy function methods such as Least Squares Monte Carlo as alternatives to full nested stochastic calculations, and we have demonstrated the successful application of these methods for hedging in simple option examples including path-dependent options. This paper extends previous work by considering actual VA products with guarantees of the kind offered by insurers in North America and Europe.

May 2016 Pdf Dr. Steven Morrison, Aubrey Clayton

Quantitative Insurance Research - The unintended consequences of scenario post-processing in the valuation of insurance liabilities

In this paper we explore the use of scenario re-weighting as a method for post-processing scenario sets to reflect calibration targets without having to recalibrate the model. While post-processing techniques can be quite flexible in their ability to match targets, they may result in unintended changes to distributional assumptions that are not included in the set of calibration targets. Using simple examples, we demonstrate how a scenario set's ability to match a set of vanilla asset prices does not uniquely define the resulting prices of more exotic liabilities (or assets).

September 2015 Pdf Dr. Steven Morrison

Proxy Model Validation

In this paper, we discuss the validation of proxy models, commonly used in the insurance industry to replace valuations that would otherwise require Monte Carlo simulation. In practice, proxy model validation inevitably involves a certain amount of subjectivity and is specific to the exact problem at hand. We do not attempt to provide a prescriptive recipe for how validation should be carried out, but rather suggest some general ideas and principles based on our experience implementing proxy models with our clients.

September 2015 Pdf Dr. Steven Morrison, Laura Tadrowski