Case-Shiller® Home Price Index Forecasts

Case-Shiller Indexes are unique because they:

Forecasts are updated monthly and include:

Applications

Key Features

In addition to the baseline forecast (the most likely economic scenario), Moody's Analytics forecasts the CSIs under alternative economic scenarios. Understanding the future path of house prices in relation to economic stresses such as oil price shocks, financial market distress, dollar devaluation, and others is critical to successful strategic planning and risk management.

The county house price forecasts are driven by county data on median household income, the unemployment rate, mortgage interest rates, population growth, and metro area or state house price trends. Moody's Analytics currently forecasts the aggregate index for 367 counties, updated monthly.

The CSI Historical database provides subscribers with the Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Home Price Indexes for all ZIP Codes, Counties, Metropolitan Areas, Metropolitan Divisions, States, and Census Divisions currently covered by the source. Super High Tier Repeat Sales Home Price Indexes are also available for selected areas. The National Index, a population-weighted average of the Census Divisions, is also included. For many regions, indexes for both single-family homes and condominiums are available. Where market conditions allow, the single-family home indexes are calculated by CSW in three price tiers (low-priced, medium-priced, and high-priced houses). The price range for each tier is calculated individually for each region and time period to divide the market into three approximately equal segments. An index for the overall market is also supplied for areas with three price tier indexes. Condominium indexes are currently only available at the aggregate level.