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Product Line Forecasting

Extensive Expertise in Developing Detailed Product Level Analysis, Models and Outlooks Based on Client Data and Changing Macro Economic Conditions

Moody's Analytics has extensive expertise in developing detailed product level analysis. We have worked with clients to estimate and forecast the size of the market for product lines more detailed than what is published by the government. Our expertise includes providing forecasts consistent with our macroeconomic outlook, detailed(with additional supplementary demographic data supplied by the client) regional data at the county, metro, and state level, excellent econometrician's with a proven track record in product line forecasting and comprehensive and detailed reports the outline the data, methodology and assumptions used in our product line forecasting.

PROJECT EXAMPLES

Develop an optimal pricing model for various business to consumer directories.
We developed a model to determine the "optimal" price increase for various business to consumer directories. The optimal price increase is based on four criteria: (1) the expected economic environment; (2) the price elasticity of business to consumer directories demand; (3) the rate of overall inflation; and (4) the competitive environment as defined and measured by the client. Pooled cross-sectional time series analysis was used to quantify the relationship between the economic environment, the client's pricing decisions, the competitive environment, and revenue growth for various books. Based on alternative planning horizons and economic assumptions, the annual price increase that would maximize revenue growth was determined.
Identify the changes in land use and urban sprawl at the state level.
We produced a report that analyzed thirty nine indicators of land use trends. The project involved gathering original data from disparate sources and creating for each indicator a chart illustrating its trend over time and a map that illustrates the regional distribution of the indicator across the state's counties. Each chart and map were accompanied by a brief description of the importance of the indicator to land use in the state and its implications for land use policy.
Identify the industries that are contributing to economic development at the state level.
Using the Moody's Analytics business demographics database, all industries at the two- and three-digit SIC code levels for the state were identified as belonging to one of four different industry group. This was done for the state as a whole, and for each of eight regions within the state, in order to provide a geographic distribution to the industry groups. Accompanying this study of industrial structure was a review of the state's comparative advantages versus its neighboring states. Measures include business costs, housing affordability, workforce quality, transportation and communications links, crime rates, migration patterns, and quality of life.
Determine the outlook for new entry-level single family housing.
The objective of this project was to rank the nation's approximately 100 largest metro areas based on the near-term prospects for new entry-level single family homebuilding. The outlook for five factors that significantly influence the level of new entry-level single family homebuilding are used to rank the metro areas. These factors include housing affordability, the proportion of the population between the ages of 25 and 44, expected home price appreciation, a proxy for the available inventory of new homes, and total single family homebuilding. The importance of each factor in determining the prospects for new entry-level homebuilding and used in the ranking of the metro areas is derived using regression analysis. The outlook for each of these factors is determined using Moody's Analytics regional econometric model system. This model system is used in our ongoing regional forecasting and analysis work.

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