Housing

Many U.S. housing indicators slipped a bit in February, and activity remains tepid, as it has throughout the recovery. Nonetheless, the residential property market is recovering, as the factors underlying demand and supply strengthen. Even after accounting for unusual seasonal patterns brought on by the unusually warm winter, conditions have not been this strong since the government ended homebuyer tax credits in 2010.

Author: Celia Chen
Date: April 12, 2012

European real estate markets are driven by global, country-specific and regional trends. The global financial crisis in 2008 put an end to price appreciation in most parts of Europe. Property prices are declining or stagnating in the U.K., Spain, and much of Russia. On the other hand, prices are booming in Scandinavia. Further, property values in metro areas such as Moscow and London are rising despite the corresponding country-level decreases.

Author: Petr Zemcik and Anna Zabrodska
Date: February 8, 2012

The Federal Reserve has a set of suggestions to jump-start the moribund U.S. housing market, which is experiencing its sixth year of falling prices. The Fed’s ideas are not new; other agencies and analysts have discussed them extensively since the crisis began. Yet Chairman Ben Bernanke’s entry into the discussion is notable, since many of the proposals require action by entities other than the Fed. That said, even if the central bank’s advice is implemented, its effect on the health and recovery of the market is likely to be limited.

Author: Cristian deRitis
Date: January 10, 2012

The Obama administration has taken a substantive step to rejuvenate mortgage refinancing. The Home Affordable Refinance Program, introduced in 2009 to help underwater homeowners with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is being restructured. Previous efforts to help the housing market have fallen short, and skepticism regarding this one is warranted as well, but with some good oversight, the changes should make a meaningful difference.

Author: Mark Zandi and Cristian DeRitis
Date: October 26, 2011

The five-year-old housing crash continues to threaten the U.S. economic expansion. Home sales and housing construction remain weak, while house prices are falling again in many parts of the country as foreclosure and short sales are ramping up.

Author: Mark Zandi
Date: May 25, 2011

The U.S. residential mortgage finance system is stable but far from normal. Since the financial system’s near collapse in late 2008, practically no mortgage credit has been available except through the federal government.  Private mortgage lending has been nearly dormant, with the major banks very reluctant to lend and the private market effectively issuing no residential mortgage-backed securities.

Author: Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis
Date: March 11, 2011

The nation’s housing market has gone from boom to bubble to bust over the past decade, with a devastating impact on the global economy and financial system. Millions of bad mortgage loans were made—loans homeowners would have had difficulty repaying under the best of circumstances—and as a result, millions are now losing their homes. As the financial institutions with stakes in these bad loans buckled, credit stopped slowing and the U.S. economy experienced its worst recession in decades.

Authors: Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis
Date: February 7, 2011

The housing market is having a tough time shaking off its malaise, with a true recovery another six to 12
months away. The weak economic expansion, combined with the weight placed upon housing by a large
inventory of distressed homes, will send house prices back down before they stabilize toward the end of
next year. In particular, the growing inventory of foreclosed homes on bank balance sheets portends another
flood of discounted distress sales that, combined with a low number of normal home sales, will drag down
house prices.

Author: Celia Chen
Date: November 2010

The U.S. housing market downturn has gone from bad to worse, dragging the broader economy into what threatens to be the worst economic setback since the Great Depression. Policymakers have not yet been able to break the downward spiral that has developed among the sinking housing market, job losses, frozen credit markets, and rising foreclosures.

Author: Mark Zandi, Celia Chen, Cristian deRitis and Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Date: February 2009

The nation’s housing market is in the midst of its worst downturn in the post- World War II period. Since peaking some two years ago, new and existing home sales have fallen by 30%, housing starts are off by 40%, and house prices have tumbled by a startling over 5%.

Date: December 2007

The boom years for the U.S. residential mortgage market extended throughout much of this decade, ending only late in 2006. Origination volumes soared during this period as new loan products were originated to an expanding number of new borrowers. Credit quality was arguably at its very best. Mortgage lenders could not have wished for higher volumes and better credit quality.

Date: July 2007

The U.S. housing market downturn is in full swing. New and existing home sales and single family housing construction are sliding, inventories of unsold homes are surging to new record highs, and house prices are falling in an increasing number of areas.

Author: Mark Zandi, Celia Chen and Brian Carey
Date: October 2006

This analysis from 2006 centres on the impact of very aggressive mortgage lending in the U.S and how the loan-to-value ratio can has led to far reaching credit problems. The results of this are explored in terms of both lender and consumer behaviour, and argues that the global economic fault line started with the subprime residential mortgage collapse largely because these mortgages were so new and the securities based on them even newer.

Author: Mark. M. Zandi & Juan Manuel Licari
Date: July 3, 2006

"It is also conceivable that an oft-cited benefit of the MBS market, namely its ability to diffuse mortgage credit risk more widely, is also a drawback. Risk is now so diffuse that it is unclear to investors who is bearing the risk and to what degree. If even a single investor visibly stumbles when credit quality erodes, liquidity in the market could quickly evaporate. Other investors, not knowing who is next to suffer, may decide not to engage in further transactions until the proverbial dust clears."

Author: Mark Zandi,
Author: February 23, 2006