Housing

According to new forecasts from Moody’s Analytics, based on the Brookfield RPS House Price Indices, Canadian house prices will experience slower growth over the next five years, but avoid significant declines at the national level forecasts project that a number of metropolitan areas, most notably Vancouver and Edmonton, will experience some modest price declines in the near-term.

Authors: Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Date: October 18, 2016

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Activity in Australia’s housing market remains robust on a national basis, and Moody’s Analytics expects prices nationwide to rise 6% this year and 4.1% in 2017.

 

Authors: Alaistair Chan, Faraz Syed
Date: June 8, 2016

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In this article we examine how, though not slowing, the housing market has failed to take off in the past six months and is still not helping to push a faster recovery as previously anticipated.

Author: Andres Carbacho‐Burgos
Date: September 2, 2015
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This article looks at how the single-family rental market has enjoyed a strong run in recent years. Demand has increased quickly, fueled by the foreclosure crisis and declining home ownership rate.

 Authors: Mark Zandi, Chris Lafakis

Date: June 06, 2015
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In this article we look at the U.S. housing market and it's better spring after the winter doldrums.

Author: Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Date: May 14, 2015

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This article looks at how weak household finances point to reduced demand for single-family homes.

Author: Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Date: March 25, 2015

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The U.S. housing market will rebound in the second half of this year and will strengthen further in 2015. Demand will pick up, and a slender inventory of desirable homes for sale and tightening rental markets will jump‐start residential construction. Strong demand will keep house prices appreciating.

Author: Celia Chen
Date: June 25, 2014
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State and local government fiscal conditions are slowly improving and no longer drag on the overall pace of U.S. economic growth. State and local government spending contributed 19 basis points to real GDP growth in the third quarter, and will be a slight positive for the economy in 2013 assuming no massive reversal is in store for the fourth quarter.

Author: Dan White
Date: December 10, 2013

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Housing is on the mend, but homeownership will not return to its precrash levels for some time. The inventory of homes available for sale is growing slowly but remains low. At current demand levels, supplies would last only four months for new homes and five months for existing homes. The market has nearly eliminated excess supply, with the number of vacant homes for sale or rent near equilibrium.

Author: Celia Chen
Date: August 13, 2013

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Housing finance reform received an important boost last month with the introduction in Congress of the Housing Finance Reform and Taxpayer Protection Act of 2013.1 The bipartisan legislation, written by Senators Bob Corker (R-TN) and Mark Warner (D-VA), represents a serious plan to resolve Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and fix the nation’s broken housing finance system.  

Author: Mark Zandi 
Date: July 8, 2013

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Tomorrow's system must protect taxpayers as well as homeowners. Nearly five years after the government put Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship in the wake of the housing crisis, nine of 10 new mortgage loans are still backed by the federal government.  

Author: Mark Zandi 
Date: June 19, 2013

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House prices are rapidly appreciating, potential buyers are girding themselves for bidding wars, and investors are snapping up properties in bulk. Under these circumstances, there is little wonder that many fear a new housing bubble is developing despite the hard lessons of the Great Recession. These fears are not entirely misplaced: Given the devastating impact overinvestment in housing had on the entire economy and the soft recovery, another housing correction would have very bad consequences. However, notwithstanding house price growth that by some measures is as exuberant as in 2005, conditions are much better balanced today and the likelihood of another house price bubble bursting is small. 

Author: Celia Chen 
Date: June 23, 2013

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Each new month of data confirms that the housing market’s recovery is here to stay. Most notably, house prices have enjoyed sustained appreciation. National house price appreciation ranges from 3% to 9% year over year, according to commonly cited measures. Sustained price appreciation is key to improved consumer attitudes about the housing market.

Author: Celia Chen 
Date: January 22, 2013

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The U.S. housing market is about to turn from being a drag on the broader economy to being a driver.

Author: Celia Chen 
Date: November 20, 2012

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This article provides a brief description of each national housing market and characterizes major supply and demand determinants. The main European property markets descriptions are then complemented with more illustrative analysis using a simple supply and demand model. Finally, it concentrates on the macroeconomic impact on housing shock.

Authors: Petr Zemcik, Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Anna Zebrodzka
Date: July 1, 2012
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The U.S. economy is holding in recovery, though financial markets point to slower growth.

Author: Justin Irving
Date: May 29, 2012

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The two housing finance giants are earning profits again. How soon can they repay their bailouts?

Author: Cristian deRitis
Date: May 24, 2012

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Many U.S. housing indicators slipped a bit in February, and activity remains tepid, as it has throughout the recovery. Nonetheless, the residential property market is recovering, as the factors underlying demand and supply strengthen. Even after accounting for unusual seasonal patterns brought on by the unusually warm winter, conditions have not been this strong since the government ended homebuyer tax credits in 2010.

Author: Celia Chen
Date: April 12, 2012

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European real estate markets are driven by global, country-specific and regional trends. The global financial crisis in 2008 put an end to price appreciation in most parts of Europe. Property prices are declining or stagnating in the U.K., Spain, and much of Russia. On the other hand, prices are booming in Scandinavia. Further, property values in metro areas such as Moscow and London are rising despite the corresponding country-level decreases.

Author: Petr Zemcik and Anna Zabrodska
Date: February 8, 2012

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The Federal Reserve has a set of suggestions to jump-start the moribund U.S. housing market, which is experiencing its sixth year of falling prices. The Fed’s ideas are not new; other agencies and analysts have discussed them extensively since the crisis began. Yet Chairman Ben Bernanke’s entry into the discussion is notable, since many of the proposals require action by entities other than the Fed. That said, even if the central bank’s advice is implemented, its effect on the health and recovery of the market is likely to be limited.

Author: Cristian deRitis
Date: January 10, 2012

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The Obama administration has taken a substantive step to rejuvenate mortgage refinancing. The Home Affordable Refinance Program, introduced in 2009 to help underwater homeowners with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is being restructured. Previous efforts to help the housing market have fallen short, and skepticism regarding this one is warranted as well, but with some good oversight, the changes should make a meaningful difference.

Author: Mark Zandi and Cristian DeRitis
Date: October 26, 2011

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The five-year-old housing crash continues to threaten the U.S. economic expansion. Home sales and housing construction remain weak, while house prices are falling again in many parts of the country as foreclosure and short sales are ramping up.

Author: Mark Zandi
Date: May 25, 2011

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The U.S. residential mortgage finance system is stable but far from normal. Since the financial system’s near collapse in late 2008, practically no mortgage credit has been available except through the federal government.  Private mortgage lending has been nearly dormant, with the major banks very reluctant to lend and the private market effectively issuing no residential mortgage-backed securities.

Author: Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis
Date: March 11, 2011

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The nation’s housing market has gone from boom to bubble to bust over the past decade, with a devastating impact on the global economy and financial system. Millions of bad mortgage loans were made—loans homeowners would have had difficulty repaying under the best of circumstances—and as a result, millions are now losing their homes. As the financial institutions with stakes in these bad loans buckled, credit stopped slowing and the U.S. economy experienced its worst recession in decades.

Authors: Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis
Date: February 7, 2011

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The housing market is having a tough time shaking off its malaise, with a true recovery another six to 12
months away. The weak economic expansion, combined with the weight placed upon housing by a large
inventory of distressed homes, will send house prices back down before they stabilize toward the end of
next year. In particular, the growing inventory of foreclosed homes on bank balance sheets portends another
flood of discounted distress sales that, combined with a low number of normal home sales, will drag down
house prices.

Author: Celia Chen
Date: November 2010

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The U.S. housing market downturn has gone from bad to worse, dragging the broader economy into what threatens to be the worst economic setback since the Great Depression. Policymakers have not yet been able to break the downward spiral that has developed among the sinking housing market, job losses, frozen credit markets, and rising foreclosures.

Author: Mark Zandi, Celia Chen, Cristian deRitis and Andres Carbacho-Burgos
Date: February 2009

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The nation’s housing market is in the midst of its worst downturn in the post- World War II period. Since peaking some two years ago, new and existing home sales have fallen by 30%, housing starts are off by 40%, and house prices have tumbled by a startling over 5%.

Date: December 2007

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The boom years for the U.S. residential mortgage market extended throughout much of this decade, ending only late in 2006. Origination volumes soared during this period as new loan products were originated to an expanding number of new borrowers. Credit quality was arguably at its very best. Mortgage lenders could not have wished for higher volumes and better credit quality.

Date: July 2007

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The U.S. housing market downturn is in full swing. New and existing home sales and single family housing construction are sliding, inventories of unsold homes are surging to new record highs, and house prices are falling in an increasing number of areas.

Author: Mark Zandi, Celia Chen and Brian Carey
Date: October 2006

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This analysis from 2006 centres on the impact of very aggressive mortgage lending in the U.S and how the loan-to-value ratio can has led to far reaching credit problems. The results of this are explored in terms of both lender and consumer behaviour, and argues that the global economic fault line started with the subprime residential mortgage collapse largely because these mortgages were so new and the securities based on them even newer.

Author: Mark. M. Zandi & Juan Manuel Licari
Date: July 3, 2006

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