Global Economics

Moody's Analytics will expand each of the Fed's scenarios to produce forecasts for the full set of more than 1,500 variables found in its own macroeconomic forecasts.

Authors: Ed Friedman, Celia Chen, Adam Kamins, Cris Deritis
Date: March 2017
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Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policies changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

Presenter: Mark Zandi
Date: December 2016
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We demonstrate how our service can be used to produce more realistic forecasts of income and balance sheet statements.

Presenter: Tony Hughes, Brian Poi
Date: October, 2016
To effectively manage risk in your auto portfolios, you need to account for future economic conditions. Relying on models that do not fully account for cyclical economic factors and include subjective overlay, may produce inaccurate, inconsistent or biased estimates of residual values.

In this webinar, Tony Hughes of Moody’s Analytics presents a purely quantitative econometric method for determining residual vehicle values.

Presenter: Dr. Tony Hughes
Date: October 16, 2016
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The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country’s place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the Brexit.

Presenter: Mark Zandi
Date: June 29, 2016
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In this study based on data from IXI covering consumer spending, household financial and housing wealth across states and metropolitan areas, shows that the "wealth effect" – the impact on consumer spending of changes in household wealth – has been instrumental to the economy’s gains since the recession.

Author: Mark Zandi, Brian Poi, Scott Hoyt
Date: October 10, 2015
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This article discusses the methodology used in generating forecasts of the RCA commercial Property Prices Indices.

Author: Kyle Hillman
Date: September 28, 2015
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Changes in the global economy are reshaping the regional pattern of U.S. economic growth - in this article we examine how.

Author: Steven Cochrane
Date: September 16, 2015
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In the current outlook we explain how the central bank alone can’t offset China's slowdown or rising uncertainty in emerging markets.

Author: Tomas Holinka
Date: September 15, 2015
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This article looks at job data and how it continues to indicate a tighter labor market with prices appearing to have bottomed.

Author: Thomas McCartin
Date: September 14, 2015
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In this article, we look at the possibility that the Federal Reserve will end its zero interest rate policy at this week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Author: Mark Zandi
Date: September 14, 2015
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Our current article looks the rise of Total EU food exports thanks to new markets, but some sectors and countries have struggled.

Author: Anna Zabrodzka
Date: September 4, 2015
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We examine the global economy facing a difficult transition as governments, businesses and households anticipate and respond to the eventual normalization of U.S. monetary policy in our most recent Global Outlook.

Author: Tu Packard
Date: September 4, 2015
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In this article we look at the continuing improvement in the European economy.

Author: Martin Janicko and European Research Staff
Date: August 30, 2015
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In this article we analyze the credit market improvement as the economy strengthens, and the labor market's approaching full employment and real wealth per capita.

Author: Deniz Tudor
Date: August 30, 2015
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In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.

Authors: Tony Hughes, Samuel Malone
Date: July 15, 2015
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In this paper we discuss our approach to forecasting residual car values that accounts for cyclical economic factors affecting the automotive industry, under normal and stressed scenarios.

Authors: Tony Hughes, Zhou Liu, Pedro Castro
Date: July 13, 2015
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In this article we consider how, if implemented, the deal reached this past weekend between Greece and its creditors to keep Greece in the euro zone will result in a deeper downturn. So deep, it is questionable whether Greece will achieve fiscal sustainability.

Author: Tu Packard 
Date: July 13, 2015
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In this paper we explain how the Greek crisis should not be a significant problem for the U.S., but a weakening trade balance is.

Author: Mark Zandi 

Date: July 8, 2015

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In this paper we look at the resulting increase in borrowing costs of euro area periphery countries due to Greece defaulting on a payment due on June 30, and how it is blunting the impact of the European Central Bank’s aggressive €1.1 trillion program of government bond purchases.

Author: Tu Packard 
Date: July 1, 2015

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In this article we look at the risks to positive economic outlook and how they are less threatening than they have been in many years.

Author: Mark Zandi 
Date: June 9, 2015
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In this article, we look at the strengthening economy and how it will boost job prospects.

Author: Efua Afful
Date: June 08, 2015
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This article examines where income growth is the strongest, and how the distribution of income across these regions may be changing.

Author: Anna Zabrodzka
Date: June 4, 2015
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In this article, we use the industrial structure of the metropolitan areas to illustrate how some metro areas are thriving again while others continue to struggle.

Author: Tomas Holinka
Date: June 03, 2015
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  • In this presentation we examine the global outlook and the key threats to economic recovery, and dive deep into the challenges of regulatory stress testing to enable risk professionals to build stronger risk management practices.

Author: Isabel Gomez-Vidal

Date: May 20, 2015

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This article examines the European recovery, which is nearly two years in, remaining slow but has broadened to include more countries.

Authors: Adam Goldin
Date: May 15, 2015

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This articles seeks to answer this question by explaining how immediate but temporary increases in inflation would likely boost the recovery in the short run through higher production, employment and wages, they would not contribute to higher consumption in the long run.

Author: Tomas Holinka   
Date: May 14, 2015
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The market for new cars is growing strongly and lessors need forecasts and associated stress scenarios of future vehicle value to set the initial terms, to monitor the performance of their book and to stress-test cash flows. This presentation offers insight and tools to help lessors in this pursuit.

Authors: Tony Hughes, Pedro Castro, Zhou Liu
Date: May 5, 2015
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In this article, we consider the increasing prevalence of long term loans and use the AutoCycle™ wholesale price forecasts to uncover equity held by the borrower under different economic scenarios.

 

Author: Tony Hughes   
Date: April 30, 2015

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In this article Moody's Analytics assesses the U.K. stress-testing scenarios published by The Prudential Regulation Authority.

 

Author: Petr Zemcik   
Date: April 15, 2015

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